Ukrainians fear grim winter amid massive attacks on power plants

KYIV – A summer house in the countryside east of Kyiv now offers Mr Heorhii Samofalov a safer and more stable life than his high-rise apartment in the Ukrainian capital.

He does not need to use a lift and has access to an uninterrupted supply of water and other amenities.

“Power issues made it extremely challenging to reach the 13th floor,” the 75-year-old retiree said. “It’s a problem even to make tea, as everything runs on electricity.”

In contrast, his place in the countryside about 80km from Kyiv has a stove for heating and gas for cooking.

Russia’s massive attacks on Ukraine’s power grid

have forced many like him to consider their options as a grim winter without heating looms.

This week’s air raids on Kyiv and other cities across the country were the largest since

Russia’s full-scale invasion began 2½ years ago

.

In June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated that such attacks cost his country 80 per cent of its thermal power plant capacity and one-third of hydropower production, crucial for smooth electricity supplies.

Diesel generators are becoming a normal part of life; in 2024, prolonged blackouts, once a feature of fall and winter, persisted throughout the summer. 

The most recent air raids followed

Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk

region.

It was a move that gave Ukraine’s army the initiative and Ukrainian society a badly needed cause for optimism.

But Moscow’s attacks are a stark reminder that Kyiv’s power predicaments are not going anywhere.

The authorities will need to restore damaged power plants and find a way to defend them – and do both while the barrages continue.

Mr Samofalov’s outlook is grim, reflecting doubts that Kyiv will succeed in restoring energy in time for the cold season.

“Energy officials always stress ‘it will be difficult, but we will survive if there is no further damage’,” he said, but added that the “physical protection of energy facilities has, in fact, proved to be worthless”.

The government added to the pressure by nearly doubling electricity tariffs in June, which hardly quelled public anger.

Failing to deliver a boost to power could accelerate already fading support for the government.  

Ukrainians simultaneously blame both Russia and their own government for electricity problems, Dr Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta research institute in Kyiv, said in a phone interview.

Many citizens still believe that power cuts persist due to corruption and ongoing electricity exports – an allegation energy officials have repeatedly denied.  

Mr Zelensky aims to add one gigawatt of decentralised capacity in 2024, replacing the country’s damaged large-scale thermal and hydropower plants with hundreds of smaller, more easily concealed power stations.

This plan depends on natural gas, which the country continues to partially import despite intentions to become self-sufficient.

It is also more readily available due to the destruction of gas-intensive factories and a government ban on gas exports. Prices for domestically extracted gas remain stable.

With a matter of months before winter sets in, experts wonder whether any such plan comes too little, too late.

“It’s almost impossible to achieve these additional capacities by the end of the year,” said Mr Denys Sakva, an energy analyst at Kyiv-based investment bank Dragon Capital.

If Ukraine succeeds in decentralising power generation, Moscow might shift its missile and drone attacks to the gas distribution system to disrupt fuel supplies.

The frequency of Russia’s air strikes on such facilities has already increased in 2024.

“We are definitely concerned,” Mr Oleksiy Chernyshov, chief executive officer of state-run energy company Naftogaz said in a conference call with investors earlier in July. “The Russians have started to attack our underground storage facilities in the west of Ukraine.” 

For now, the persistent uncertainty caused by Russia’s attacks makes it hard for Ukrainians to plan for the short term, let alone for the winter. 

The Ukrainian central bank predicts another 400,000 people will have left the country in 2024 because of hardships such as rolling blackouts and threats to the energy infrastructure.

If things get worse, says Ms Valeriya Svetina, she will have to decide on the spot.

The 45-year-old interpreter has already left Kyiv twice, once for western Ukraine and once for the UK, due to Russia’s near-constant air raids on the capital.

After the air strike on Aug 27, she is considering leaving the country again. 

“As the cold weather approaches, I think more and more about the fact that I may have to go abroad to spend the winter,” Ms Svetina said. “The lack of electricity, in addition to domestic difficulties, makes it impossible to make plans in an already unstable environment.” BLOOMBERG