Ukraine struggles to hold eastern front as Russian forces advance on cities

DONETSK REGION, Ukraine - For Ukrainian gun commander Oleksandr Kozachenko, the long-awaited US ammunition cannot come fast enough as he and his comrades struggle to hold off relentless Russian attacks.

His unit’s US-supplied M777 Howitzer, which once hurled 100 shells a day at the encroaching enemy, is now often reduced to fewer than 10.

“It’s a luxury if we can fire 30 shells.”

America says it is rushing ammunition and weapons to Ukraine following

the delayed approval of a US$61 billion (S$80 billion) aid package

by Congress in April. As at early May, though, two artillery units visited by Reuters on the eastern front line said they were still waiting for a boost in deliveries and operating at a fraction of the rate they need to hold back the Russians.

Gunners in Mr Kozachenko’s 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd Artillery Brigade, both in the Donetsk region, said they were desperate for more 155mm rounds for their Western cannon, which had given them an edge over Russia earlier in the war.

Resurgent Russian forces, which significantly outnumber and outgun the Ukrainian defenders, have been mounting multiple attacks across the eastern Donbas region in recent months and along the country’s north-eastern border last week.

The drive has marked an inflection point in the conflict spawned by Russia’s full-scale invasion more than two years ago.

Russia has gained more territory in 2024 than it lost control of during Ukraine’s much-hyped counter-offensive in the summer of 2023, according to Mr Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at Black Bird Group, a Finnish-based volunteer group that analyses satellite imagery and social media content from the war.

Moscow’s forces have claimed 654 sq km since the beginning of 2024, outstripping the 414 sq km lost to Ukraine between June 1 and Oct 1, 2023, Mr Paroinen said. Russia has gained 222 sq km of territory since only May 2, he added.

Russia’s Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment for this article, while Ukraine’s military did not immediately respond.

Colonel Pavlo Palisa, whose 93rd Mechanised Brigade is fighting near the key strategic city of Chasiv Yar, said he believed Russia was preparing a major push to break Ukrainian lines in the east. This echoed the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who said last week that he expected the war to enter a critical phase over the next two months as Moscow tries to exploit persistent delays in weapons supplies to Kyiv.

“Without a doubt, this will be a difficult period for the armed forces,” said Col Palisa, adding that he believes the Kremlin wants to capture the entire Donbas industrial region by the end of 2024.

Cities brace themselves for Russian advance

Russian forces are gradually making inroads that could come to threaten several big cities in the east, including Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which serve as key military hubs for Kyiv’s war effort.

Some gains are striking fear in the hearts of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living in those Donetsk region cities as the enemy grinds ever closer.

“We live only for today,” said 31-year-old school teacher Nina Shyshymarieva, standing with her young daughter outside a church in Kostiantynivka as artillery thundered in the distance.

“We don’t know what will happen tomorrow.”

Russian cannon are now easily within range of Kostiantynivka – the closest Russian position at the start of 2024 was about 20km away, according to open-source maps that show shifting positions along the front line. Now it is 14km.

Ms Shyshymarieva and the fighters on the front line were among more than a dozen soldiers, commanders, residents and evacuation volunteers interviewed by Reuters in eastern Ukraine over the last two weeks. They painted a picture of deep uncertainty.

Much of the Donetsk region, which along with Luhansk makes up the greater Donbas area, is under daily bombardment, typically targeted at least a dozen times a day by Russian artillery or air strikes, according to regional governor Vadym Filashkin.

Ruins of homes, apartment blocks and administrative buildings are common sights in towns and cities.

Mr Oleksandr Stasenko, a volunteer rescuer, said his team was receiving more evacuation requests, particularly from Kostiantynivka and Kurakhove, another town farther south, among other settlements.

Russian forces have encroached towards Kurakhove, too, advancing 2km to 3km along the road running east from the town so far in 2024.

“Wherever the front line is approaching, people in those places are trying to leave as soon as possible,” said Mr Stasenko, adding that his group, East SOS, evacuates around two dozen people a week, many of them elderly or infirm.

‘Time is not on our side’

Ukraine has roughly 1,000km of front lines to defend in the east, north and south.

Some of the fiercest fighting in 2024 has centred on Chasiv Yar, which commands important high ground 12km away from Kostiantynivka. It lies west of the devastated city of Bakhmut that Moscow seized in 2024 after months of costly combat.

Russian advances near Chasiv Yar, and farther south around the village of Ocheretyne, could drive wedges into territory relied upon by Ukraine’s war planners for logistics, analysts said, because they would expose key roads to Russian fire.

A major highway leading west out of Kostiantynivka is already under threat. Cutting it off entirely would mean transit hubs farther north, including Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, both numbering well over 100,000 people before the war, would lose a crucial supply line.

Russia’s fresh assault on the north-eastern Kharkiv region, which began on May 10, also risks diverting stretched Ukrainian forces from the eastern front, further compromising their ability to hold the line, according to Mr Emil Kastehelmi, another analyst at Black Bird Group.

“At the moment, it seems the goal of the (Kharkiv) operation is to cause confusion and tie remaining Ukrainian reserves to areas of lesser importance,” he said.

Mr Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the London-based Rusi think-tank, said Russian forces would likely mount further attacks on northern and southern points of the front line in order to stretch Kyiv’s defences.

“Once Ukraine commits its reserves in these directions, the main effort will see the expansion of the Russian push in Donbas,” he wrote in a May 14 commentary.

A new law strengthening Kyiv’s mobilisation effort, which has been hobbled by public scepticism, takes effect on May 18. Experts and commanders say it could take several months before fresh recruits reach the front and reinforce exhausted troops there.

Even if Ukrainian forces can hold out until all the American ammunition and weapons get through to the front, the challenge ahead remains daunting, according to many of those fighting.

“I would say that it is unlikely that time is on our side, since a long war requires more resources,” said Col Palisa – the colonel with the 93rd Mechanised Brigade – speaking hours after Russia launched its ground incursion in Kharkiv.

He added that it would be critical to impose as heavy a cost on Russia as quickly as possible.

“The enemy’s resources, whether in terms of manpower or the materiel, cannot be compared with ours. It’s extraordinarily large. That is why a long war, I think, is not in our favour.” REUTERS