Ukraine’s spring offensive comes with immense stakes for future of the war
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Ukraine’s military faces many challenges – one reason that a stalemate remains the most likely outcome.
PHOTO: NYTIMES
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WASHINGTON - Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as May, United States officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.
US and Nato allies have supplied Ukraine with extensive artillery and ammunition
At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The US and Nato allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.
Although Ukraine shares few details of its operational plan with US officials, the operation is likely to unfold in the country’s south, including along Ukraine’s coastline on the Sea of Azov, near the Russian-annexed Crimea.
“Everything hinges on this counteroffensive,” said Mr Alexander Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Russia and senior Nato official.
“Everybody’s hopeful, maybe over-optimistic. But it will determine whether there is going to be a decent outcome for the Ukrainians, in terms of recovering territory on the battlefield and creating much more significant leverage to get some kind of negotiated settlement.”
While Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defences and create a widespread collapse in Russia’s army, US officials have assessed that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favour.
Ukraine’s military faces many challenges – one reason that a stalemate remains the most likely outcome. Fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine
Although Ukraine has deviated from the usual secrecy surrounding military plans by talking openly about the coming battle – in part because Ukrainian leaders need to drum up morale and pressure the West for weapons – US officials expect Ukraine’s army will use deception and feints to throw the Russians off balance.
Ukraine’s best chance of making a dramatic show in the counteroffensive will also depend on US, Nato and Ukrainian intelligence. If the US and its allies can identify significant weaknesses in Russian defences, Ukraine can exploit them with the speed and protection of tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles.
Major questions about Ukraine’s artillery and other ammunition supplies remain. Kyiv’s supplies of air defence missiles and artillery rounds, critical to sustaining any push and to defend against Russian air attacks, could run dangerously low if its forces continue to expend ammunition at their current pace.
After the offensive is over, there is little chance that the West can re-create the build-up that it did for Ukraine’s coming assault for the foreseeable future, because Western allies do not have enough supplies in existing inventories to draw from, and domestic production will not be able to fill the gap until 2024, experts say.
The Ukrainian military has been firing thousands of artillery shells a day as it tries to hold Bakhmut, a pace that US and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardise the coming offensive.
The bombardment has been so intense that the Pentagon has raised concerns with officials in Kyiv, warning them that Ukraine was wasting ammunition at a key time.
While Ukrainian forces can use drones to strike behind Russian front lines, they have not been given missiles with a long enough range to hit Russia’s logistical hubs, a tactic that proved important in last summer’s offensives outside Kharkiv and Kherson.
The Russians have challenges of their own.
Since the beginning of the invasion, there have been major doubts about the basic competence of Russian commanders and their supply of well-trained soldiers, artillery shells and equipment.
The Russians have expended many of their cruise missiles, lost thousands of people in Bakhmut alone, and drained their stores of ammunition much faster than they can replace them with their domestic production.
But Russia is working to address those gaps. Russian troops have honed their ability to use drones and artillery to target Ukrainian forces more effectively.
They have recently started using glide bombs – which use gravity and basic guidance devices to reach their targets without making any noise – to show they are still capable of deploying newer weapons on the battlefield.
The efforts mean the window to make significant gains against Russia’s depleted forces may not remain open indefinitely.
In private meetings, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has told other officials that he believes Russia has the numerical advantage on the battlefield because it has more planes, tanks, artillery pieces and soldiers than the Ukrainians, according to a senior European official aware of the discussions.
In these conversations, Mr Shoigu came across as supremely confident that Russia will eventually prevail.
US intelligence officials have repeatedly warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks that time is on his side. Given Russia’s bigger reserves of equipment and manpower, the officials say Mr Putin believes he will ultimately emerge victorious as the West’s appetite to support Ukraine subsides.
US and European officials say Russia is preparing new rounds of mobilisations to bolster the ranks of its military without creating the same exodus of young men from the country, which occurred in 2022 when a partial mobilisation was announced.
Some of the leaked Pentagon documents also outline how Wagner, Russia’s biggest military contractor, had restarted recruiting troops from Russia’s prisons.
US officials say Mr Putin faces a political cost for any mobilisation, and even if he is willing to bear those costs, it will take Russia time to conscript those forces, train them and send them to the fight. Forces that were rushed to the front, like Wagner’s prison recruits, quickly became cannon fodder.
Still, Russia’s capacity – and willingness – to absorb losses remains large, allowing it to mobilise more conscripts. But some analysts have raised doubts that Moscow has enough soldiers to fill the trenches it has built across its front lines.
A key focus of the US and the West has been trying to stop Russia from finding new supplies of weaponry. US and Nato officials have hindered Russia’s domestic manufacturing with sanctions and export controls, and put diplomatic pressure on countries to reject Russian requests for arms.
China appears to have been deterred, at least for the moment, from providing Russia with ammunition or other lethal aid.
US officials publicised intelligence about Beijing’s private discussions with Moscow, and they have not seen any evidence since that China is sending arms. Similarly, Russian efforts to acquire guided missiles from Iran have not borne fruit so far.
Another apparent success has been Egypt. While US officials were quietly pressing Cairo to supply artillery shells to Ukraine, US intelligence agencies gathered information, first reported by The Washington Post, that Egyptian officials might also supply weaponry to Russia.
After a diplomatic push by the US and Britain, the Egyptians appeared to side with the Americans. According to a subsequent intelligence report, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi rejected the idea of Cairo supplying the Russian side.
US officials said a production contract has been agreed with Egyptian state-owned arms makers to produce artillery shells for the US and American contractors, who, in turn, will send them to Ukraine.
Some European countries, including France, are pushing for negotiations. For now, Mr Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are dug in, and peace talks appear to be nowhere in sight.
For the Ukrainians to force a real negotiation, they must make sure “Vladimir Putin’s hubris, his arrogance, is punctured”, Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns said at a speech at Rice University earlier in April.
The Ukrainians have said they will not agree to any peace talks until they push back the Russians and gain more territory. NYTIMES
