Ukraine faces air defence squeeze as Iran war burns supplies

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KYIV – Ukraine may face depleted air defences as the US-led war with Iran burns through global stockpiles of Patriot missiles, the most valuable weapon Kyiv has in its arsenal against relentless Russian attacks. 

Iran has launched more than 2,100 attack drones and at least 688 ballistic missiles since the war began, according to a Bloomberg analysis.

That’s prompted the US and its allies to fire more than 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors, putting a strain on supplies worldwide and raising fears about how quickly they can be replaced.

For President Volodymyr Zelensky, it also means his country’s allies, including the US, may keep a tighter grip on their own missiles.

The Ukrainian leader said Kyiv has received 600 PAC-3 missiles in total since Russia invaded his country four years ago – fewer than the number fired in the Gulf region in the last 11 days. 

Ukraine has made a practice of reserving its Patriot defences mainly for more advances ballistic and cruise missiles, such as hypersonic Kinzhals and Zircons – hardware that Russia had claimed couldn’t be intercepted.

The authorities in Kyiv have been astonished at Gulf states deploying PAC-3s to bring down low-cost drones. 

“Patriots are a priority for us,” Mr Zelensky said in audio comments sent to reporters on March 10.

He stressed the importance of replenishing missile supplies for existing systems, saying that he “doesn’t even dream” of acquiring new Patriot launchers.

The German government said on March 10 it would club together with several European allies to provide 35 additional interceptors for Ukraine.

Europe has taken over the bulk of financing of military assistance to Kyiv since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

But most advanced weapons are purchased from the US under NATO-sponsored programme that attracted more than US$4 billion (S$5.08 billion) in pledges. 

Several European Union states warned at a closed-door meeting in Brussels last week about a global shortage of interceptors, Bloomberg News reported.

Some of the officials noted that the defence weapons could become more scarce if the war in the Middle East drags on.

The continent has already tapped stockpiles to support Ukraine, according to people familiar with the gathering.

Mr Zelensky has said he would share his country’s expertise in protecting against explosives-laden Iranian Shahed drones in exchange for Patriot missiles. 

The sudden scramble could have been avoided.

Ukraine has been offering its anti-drone systems to the US and its allies for months, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Mr Zelensky floated the idea that the US would buy or co-develop the Ukrainian battlefield-tested drone technology, which could also help fight off drones used by Iran, the person said speaking on condition of anonymity. 

Swarms of drones

Over recent months, US officials showed Ukrainian counterparts maps highlighting where Kyiv’s anti-drone expertise could be deployed, including bases in the Middle East, Europe, Japan and South Korea, but discussions didn’t translate into large-scale cooperation, the person said. 

“God forbid anyone uses anything against you, but you need to know that you will need tens of thousands of drones,” Mr Zelensky said he warned his country’s allies in October. “Because it’s combined attacks that work.” 

While purchases of some US-made weapons sought by Ukraine have proceeded, largely financed by Ukraine’s mostly European partners, the US didn’t take Ukraine’s offer for drone cooperation seriously, the person said.

The interest remained limited until Iranian barrages began hitting the Gulf states, according to the person. 

Ukraine’s deal drone offer to the US remains “absolutely relevant”, Mr Zelensky said in the March 10 audio comments. 

The US administration rejected the account.

“This characterisation made by these cowardly unnamed sources is not accurate and proves that they are simply outside looking in,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a query from Bloomberg. 

The number of Iranian attacks around the Gulf has dropped by about 90 per cent since the beginning of the war, because “their ballistic missile capabilities are being totally demolished”, Ms Kelly said.

She said that proves that Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and the military “did an incredible job planning for all possible responses” from Iran.  

The crisis has created opportunities for Ukraine’s defence industry, with Persian Gulf states and Western allies confronting gaps in their ability to counter swarms of relatively cheap, explosive-laden drones that accompany missile launches, confusing and straining their air defenses. 

Ukraine has built a layered early-warning and air-defence system against Russian drones, combining electronic warfare, mobile fire groups and attack aircraft firing cannons to down unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as domestically produced interceptors.

Ukraine got some 11 request for military assistance, drone interceptors, electronic warfare systems, and training, Mr Zelensky said on X on March 9. The US is among the countries asking for help, he added. 

Kyiv is seeking to capitalise on that demand without undermining its own war effort.

Mr Zelensky repeatedly floated the idea of opening up controlled arms exports in order to boost the country’s coffers while not depleting its military capacities.

The fresh interest gives Mr Zelensky additional leverage with allies as a gatekeeper to military exports by Ukrainian companies.

Skyfall, one of Ukraine’s major drone makers, has received multiple requests from Middle East countries to buy their drones, the company said on March 10.

The company said it’s ready to ship between 5,000 and 10,000 units immediately and produce the rest of the required quantity within the next three months, once the government gives the green light. 

“Kyiv has a near-term opportunity to convert its hard-won expertise countering Shahed-type drone attacks into export sales,” Mr Alex Kokcharov, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics, wrote in a report.

“But those gains are likely to be partly offset and possibly outweighed by sharper competition for scarce US-made air-defence interceptors and other munitions that Ukraine still cannot replace at scale.” BLOOMBERG