UK sticking to Brexit timeline despite Covid-19 upheaval

LONDON • With governments distracted by the battle with the coronavirus, many analysts have assumed that Britain and the European Union will be forced to extend their year-end deadline for reaching a post-Brexit trade deal.

But, despite painfully slow progress in talks, the British government is adamant about sticking to that forbidding timetable, even at the risk of heaping more economic damage on nations reeling from the effect of lockdowns.

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson still convalescing after being hospitalised with Covid-19, his officials in London on Friday rejected any idea of stretching out the talks.

They echoed earlier comments from Britain's top negotiator, Mr David Frost, who noted that the deadline was Dec 31 and added bluntly: "We will not ask to extend it. If the EU asks, we will say no."

Not long ago, such talk seemed more like posturing than practical politics, and many assumed the two sides would quietly agree in June to extend the talks.

Yet, if anything, Britain seems to be hardening its position, raising fears that a second economic shock - over Brexit - could hit struggling European economies.

The thinking seems to be that the economic costs of abruptly withdrawing from the EU without a trade deal might be buried by the British government beneath the damage wreaked by the coronavirus.

King's College London European politics and foreign affairs professor Anand Menon said: "There are significant practical implications of not delaying; the question is whether the government cares about that, and at the moment they are showing every sign of not caring."

Others see this as part of a hardball negotiating strategy and believe that Britain will ultimately buckle, though perhaps not until the very last moment.

Although it formally left the EU in January, Britain remains under the bloc's rules until the end of the year, by which time a new trade agreement is supposed to have been reached.

Even before the coronavirus struck, that was an ambitious time scale.

Failure could leave ports clogged and disrupt supply chains at a time when many businesses already face acute pressure.

On Friday, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said progress in four areas of discussion had been "disappointing", while a British statement said "limited progress was made in bridging the gaps between us and the EU."

Not only must the two sides negotiate agreements on everything from aviation to fisheries, but Britain must also introduce new Customs posts at the border and a new immigration system.

Mr David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy, a research institute, believes that Britain will not request an extension but has not given up on striking a basic deal.

"I think they are underestimating the challenge, but they think a deal can be done," said Mr Henig, referring to the team around Mr Frost.

"One or two others in government think that's overly optimistic but also think that's fine, too, without a deal."

NYTIMES