LONDON – Britain is set to miss its decarbonisation targets for 2030 and its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by the middle of the century, Norwegian risk manager and advisory firm DNV said.

Under the Paris Agreement, Britain has committed to reducing emissions by 68 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, but a DNV report forecasts the reduction to be 55 per cent by then.

“Without immediate action, the UK will fail to deliver on its climate commitments; fall behind in the global race to decarbonise,” said Mr Hari Vamadevan, DNV’s executive vice-president and regional director for energy systems in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

In addition to the Paris global climate pact, Britain has its own legally binding target of bringing all emissions to net zero by 2050 from 1990 levels.

However, the country’s annual emissions are expected to be 125 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2050, equivalent to an 85 per cent cut from 1990 levels, not the 100 per cent reduction that the government is aiming for, DNV’s report said.

DNV said transport and buildings are two sectors that will be the largest contributors to total annual emissions in 2050.

In 2023, the British government pushed back a ban on new petrol and diesel cars and vans to 2035 from 2030. DNV said a large proportion of vehicles, particularly commercial ones, will continue to be fossil-fuelled and aviation will continue to be a large emitter due to the slow roll-out of low-carbon fuels.

Around 80 per cent of Britain’s primary energy supply comes from fossil fuels, with 13 per cent from renewables and 7 per cent from nuclear.

Heavy reliance on fossil fuels looks set to continue, reducing only to 71 per cent by 2031 under current policies and with a third of all primary energy supply still coming from fossil fuels by mid-century, the DNV report forecast.

With the right incentives, decarbonisation can be accelerated by swifter deployment of technologies such as wind, solar photovoltaic systems, smart grids and electric vehicles, along with carbon capture and storage and hydrogen, it added.

The government aims for 10 gigawatts (GW) of low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030, which can help to decarbonise industrial sectors but also potentially ultimately replace some gas in Britain’s domestic and commercial heating systems.

However, hydrogen production will reach one million tonnes a year, only 60 per cent of which will be low-carbon, equivalent to roughly 5GW of capacity, DNV said. REUTERS