UK PM Sunak faces three-week sprint to turn election chances around

LONDON – British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces an awkward three-week political test that is likely to have a lasting impact on his premiership and even his chances of upsetting the polls by winning the next British general election.

Parliament goes on summer recess on July 20, the same day Mr Sunak’s ruling Conservatives face elections in three parliamentary seats

triggered by the resignation of Tory Members of Parliament.

Good results would give the Prime Minister a major boost through the holiday and into a fall political season that will be critical to shifting predictions of a Tory loss in a national poll expected in 2024.

Yet a strong Conservative performance would be against the recent trend, and there are other potential landmines for Mr Sunak in the coming weeks.

A state visit by United States President Joe Biden,

doctors’ strikes that will hobble his key pledge to cut hospital waiting times, a predicted uptick in asylum seekers arriving from France on small boats and any political fallout from the financial concerns surrounding Britain’s biggest water supplier will go a long way toward shaping the mood of Tory MPs as they head back to their districts.

Trailing Mr Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party by 22 points – a lead that has grown from 16 points in three weeks, according to YouGov – means Mr Sunak is under pressure.

He would have hoped that a long-awaited plan to boost staff members in the National Health Service, which he described as “one of the most significant things” he will do as prime minister, would help turn the tide.

But his announcement was overshadowed on Friday when a minister resigned with a very public attack on the Prime Minister’s performance.

It was the latest in a series of public Tory spats that have undermined Mr Sunak’s attempt to build a united front to put to voters, from the fiery resignation of disgraced former leader Boris Johnson as an MP, to election campaign disagreements.

Against that backdrop, Mr Biden’s visit during a trip to Europe from July 9 to 13 to shore up Nato allies could be a welcome respite from a turbulent party.

Relations with the White House have improved under Mr Sunak, while talking up the Britain’s record backing Ukraine against Russian aggression is catnip for restless Tories.

Still, there are risks for Mr Sunak. On a trip to Belfast and Dublin in April, Mr Biden made clear his concerns about the peace process in Northern Ireland and ensuring Brexit does not undermine it.

With the Democratic Unionist Party still refusing to rejoin the region’s devolved government, there is still a major issue for Mr Sunak’s government to resolve.

Later that week, it appears virtually guaranteed the Prime Minister will face a slew of uncomfortable headlines when junior doctors in England begin five days of strikes on July 13 – the longest single walkout in National Health Service history.

Polls show the public still supports striking healthcare staff, despite months of industrial action across the public sector that have significantly hit services.

Mr Sunak has made clear he regards

tackling soaring inflation

as his top economic priority and sees negotiations over public pay in that context.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay told Sky News on Sunday the approach will not change, though the Times newspaper later cited him as saying there needed to be movement on both sides to end the strikes.

But NHS England chief executive Amanda Pritchard told the BBC that disruption from strikes had already been significant, and the next round would exacerbate that.

“We can’t let it become business as usual for the NHS,” she warned.

Mr Sunak’s week gets off to a potentially tricky start on Tuesday, when he appears before Parliament’s powerful liaison committee.

He is likely to face questions on issues including the nation’s biggest water supplier, Thames Water,

which ministers are considering nationalising,

and the implications of Mr Sunak’s policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda, which a court ruled last week was unlawful.

Yet the biggest political fireworks are likely to come with the by-elections.

The three votes on July 20 will be closely analysed for evidence that Mr Sunak is improving the party’s chances, especially after its dismal showing in May’s local elections.

Mr Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip was regarded as a prime Labour target given the former prime minister’s tainted record. After he quit, it is seen as more in the balance.

The district of Somerton and Frome in south-west England is expected to fall to the Liberal Democrats, who took nearby Tiverton and Honiton in 2022 in similar circumstances when another disgraced Tory MP resigned.

The third vote is in Selby and Ainsty, close to Mr Sunak’s own district, after one of Mr Johnson’s loyalists, MP Nigel Adams quit in solidarity with the former Tory leader.

But it is a survey taken in Mid Bedfordshire, where Tory MP Nadine Dorries – another one of Mr Johnson’s loyalists who announced her resignation but has yet to formally do so – that will likely worry the Tories.

The Telegraph newspaper reported on Saturday that the poll by Opinium, which was commissioned by Labour, found the opposition party on course to win. If it happened, that would be the biggest upset in by-election history, according to the Telegraph.

Even the most anti-Sunak Tory MPs – mostly those still loyal to Mr Johnson – concede the Conservatives cannot afford to change leader again, meaning Mr Sunak is almost certain to take the Tories into the next general election.

But the next three weeks could well shape the mood of the party he has to campaign with. BLOOMBERG