Starlink loss a blow to Russian forces in Ukraine, say experts
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Servicemen with Ukraine's 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanised Brigade walking near the front-line town of Kostiantynivka, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, on Feb 19.
PHOTO: REUTERS
- Elon Musk's Starlink cut-off likely disrupted Russian tactical command, restricting offensive capacity. Ukraine's defence adviser called it a "catastrophe" for crucial drone and command links.
- Russia sought Starlink accounts via Ukrainians and deployed less reliable Yamal/Express satellites. These large antennas are now Ukrainian targets, forcing Russia to move them back.
- Ukraine is exploiting Starlink disruption, regaining territory and launching counter-attacks. However, the overall impact on the conflict remains slow, with no dramatic shifts noted yet.
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PARIS - US tech titan Elon Musk’s move to cut Russian access
Here is what we know about the importance of Starlink to Russia and in the Ukraine conflict:
Critical command and control role
Linking Russian drones to the Starlink satellites operated by Mr Musk’s SpaceX company
The satellites are also important for Russia’s command and control, “the organisation of the operational chain that allows the military at the top to give orders to all levels of responsibility, down to the combatants,” said a western military source.
“All armies that have a little money and need bandwidth use Starlink. It’s flexible, it’s not expensive, and it complements military systems that do not allow for increased bandwidth,” the source added.
In the Ukraine conflict, the US satellites “gave Russian units real-time control over their forces and drones, to have an overview of the line of contact” so they could make better decisions, Commander Yuriy Fedorenko, of Ukraine’s 429th Achilles Drone Brigade told Freedom TV.
The satellites are even more important as there is no real front line where the Russia and Ukrainian armies are in contact, according to a high-ranking European officer.
“It is a ‘kill zone’ several kilometres wide, patrolled by drones, where small mobile squads operate, trying to strike here and there,” the officer told AFP.
“Many Russian soldiers constantly move through the area. These are critical points,” Mr Serhii Beskrestnov, a technology adviser to the Ukrainian defence ministry, told AFP.
Blackout fallout
Ukraine says that blocking Starlink has an enormous impact on Russian forces.
AFP has not been able to independently assess the fallout.
“For the Russians, this is not just a problem, it is a catastrophe,” said Mr Beskrestnov. “We knew that they used Starlink on the front”, but “we did not believe that it was this crucial.”
The Russian side played down the consequences. Mr Valery Tishkov, a communications official for the Russian military, said that Starlink was only used marginally and that the army “has all modern, domestically-produced communication services. The operations control system functions reliably and ensures the command and control of troops at the front.”
How will Russia adapt?
According to several Ukrainian sources, Russia has sought to pay Ukrainians to organise legitimate Starlink accounts that it can then use for its drones at the front.
Ukraine’s SBU security service has warned that this is a crime punishable by a sentence jail of life.
Russia has deployed alternative solutions, according to the Ukrainian sources, but these are not as reliable as Starlink’s low orbiting network. Russia has instead used its Yamal and Express geo-stationary satellites that are higher up and there are fewer of them.
“They need a satellite receiver equipped with a large parabolic antenna,” said Mr Beskrestnov.
These are now a prime target for Ukrainian forces and Russia has had to move back the antennae by 10-15 kilometres and deploy reinforced wi-fi from the receivers to the front lines.
“We are trying to locate these terminals,” said the adviser.
Decisive in conflict?
Ukrainian forces regained territory from Russia in February, a rare occurrence during the four years of war when they have gradually lost terrain amidst bitter battles that have cost thousands of lives.
On Feb 5, Russian military observers reported disruption of the Starlink internet terminals used by Moscow on the front lines after Musk took measures following a request from Kyiv.
A senior Ukrainian military official said that counter-attacks had been launched all along the front line in a single day, but gave no further details.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War says that Ukrainian forces are probably taking advantage of Russia’s loss of Starlink.
But so far there have been no dramatic changes. The European military source said that “very few troops are making direct contact with opposing soldiers, and there is no mechanised combat (which could force a breakthrough), so progress is very slow.” AFP
