Silence cloaks Kremlin after Wagner mutiny against Putin
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MOSCOW – An eerie calm fell on Russia after the dramatic end to an armed uprising that posed the greatest threat to President Vladimir Putin’s almost quarter-century rule.
The man who led the insurrection has gone uncharacteristically quiet. The President has not been seen in public since denouncing the mutiny as “treason” and threatening “harsh” punishment that never transpired.
In a bewildering 24 hours, a transfixed international audience watched troops loyal to Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin advance hundreds of kilometres towards Moscow at breakneck speed
The rapid chain of events left the US and Europe puzzling over the political implications of a rebellion that shattered Mr Putin’s invincible image as Russia’s leader.
The crisis unfolded amid bitter divisions in Russia over the faltering war in Ukraine that is the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, as a Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to try to push Russian forces out of occupied territories.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Wagner mercenary group’s revolt was a “direct challenge” to Mr Putin’s authority and “raises profound questions”, in a Sunday interview on CBS’ Face The Nation.
“We can’t speculate or know exactly where that’s going to go. We do know that Putin has a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead.”
The US had intelligence several days ago
In China, which has boosted ties with Mr Putin and refused to join US-led sanctions over the war, Foreign Minister Qin Gang met Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko in Beijing on Sunday
China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu also met Mr Rudenko on Sunday, vowing to defend the two countries’ common interests under the “complex and grim” international environment.
Chinese state media covered the uprising in Russia, while the Global Times published an article by former editor-in-chief Hu Xijin analysing potential scenarios including regime change.
The Chinese side expressed support for the Russian leadership’s efforts to stabilise the situation in the country, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a website statement.
“There’s no question that Putin has been weakened,” Mr Wess Mitchell, a former US assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia and co-founder of two think-tanks, said in an interview. “This will be the conclusion that the US and Nato draw – but also the Chinese.”
Even North Korea appeared concerned. Vice-Foreign Minister Im Chon Il “expressed firm belief that the recent armed rebellion in Russia would be successfully put down” at a meeting with the Russian Ambassador, North Korea’s Central News Agency reported.
‘Security guarantees’
Mr Putin, 70, has not commented on the deal brokered by his ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, that ended Prigozhin’s revolt.
The Kremlin said Mr Putin guaranteed to let the Wagner leader travel to Belarus and to drop criminal mutiny charges against him and the fighters involved in the rebellion.
“Putin had to make concessions and actually surrender, and instead of defeating Prigozhin, he had to negotiate with him and give security guarantees, demonstrating in public his vulnerability,” said Mr Kirill Rogov, a former Russian government adviser who now heads Re:Russia, a Vienna-based think-tank.
“Previously, Putin absolutely didn’t allow anyone to talk to him in the language of public ultimatums.”
Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unknown and he has not commented since announcing his forces were withdrawing to avoid bloodshed on late Saturday
Video on social media showed crowds cheering him and shaking his hand as he was driven away from a military installation in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, which Wagner had taken over early in the mutiny.
Mr Putin thanked Mr Lukashenko in a phone call on late Saturday for conducting the negotiations and reaching the deal, Belarus’s state-run Belta news service reported.
Russia began lifting emergency restrictions to try to quickly restore a sense of normality.
Hastily-installed roadblocks were dismantled on Sunday on highways leading into Moscow, though the authorities said Monday will remain a non-working day announced by Mayor Sergei Sobyanin after the imposition of a “counter-terrorist regime” in the capital.
Trading on the Moscow Exchange will go ahead as normal on Monday, the Bank of Russia said in a statement.
Regional officials in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh and Lipetsk reported that Wagner troops had left their territories and were heading to their field bases.
Mr Mitchell, the former US official, said Prigozhin’s challenge to Mr Putin suggests that the strategy of helping Ukraine while pressuring Russia is working.
“It’s a strategic opportunity” for Ukraine, he said.
The agreement was announced only hours after Mr Putin told Russians on state TV that those taking part in the rebellion had “betrayed Russia and will answer for it”.
The decision not to prosecute Prigozhin and his men for treason stood in stark contrast to the zeal with which the authorities have given long jail sentences to people for even minor peaceful protests against the war.
The Wagner founder has for months attacked Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and top army officials in Moscow over the conduct of the war, alleging they failed to adequately support Wagner troops fighting in Ukraine and particularly during battles for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
He has also repeatedly called for the Kremlin to introduce tougher measures including full mobilisation and martial law, warning that Russia risked defeat in the war without them.
Tensions erupted on Friday when Prigozhin, 62, posted audio messages on Telegram vowing to “punish” the Defence Ministry for what he alleged was a missile attack on a Wagner base and the losses of “tens of thousands” of Russian troops in the war.
He accused Mr Shoigu of attempting to “destroy” Wagner. The Defence Ministry denied Prigozhin’s claims about the strike.
The showdown had echoes in Russian history, where leaders including tsar Nicholas II and Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev were ousted after military misadventures. Mr Putin himself, in his televised address, drew a comparison with divisions in Russia during World War I that led to the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and civil war.
In Voronezh, a city of one million, shocked residents sought to come to terms with the turmoil.
“What seemed impossible only yesterday, today is suddenly in your life,” said Mr Petr, 46, a local car dealer who asked not to be identified out of concern for his security. BLOOMBERG
