Nuclear arms spending, arsenals swell as global tensions grow: Studies

GENEVA - The world’s nuclear powers, and China in particular, increased investment in their arsenals for a third consecutive year in 2022 amid swelling geopolitical tensions, two reports showed on Monday.

The world’s nine nuclear-armed states jointly spent US$82.9 billion (S$111.5 billion) on their arsenals that year, with the United States accounting for more than half of that, according to a new report from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican).

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), meanwhile, released a report showing that the total number of nuclear warheads held by Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia and the US was down at 12,512 at the outset of 2023, from 12,710 at the start of 2022.

While some of that included older warheads scheduled to be dismantled, Sipri said that 9,576 were in “military stockpiles for potential use” – 86 more than a year earlier.

“We are approaching, or maybe have already reached, the end of a long period of the number of nuclear weapons worldwide declining,” Sipri director Dan Smith told AFP.

“The stockpile is the usable nuclear warheads, and those numbers are beginning to tick up,” said Mr Smith, while noting that numbers are still far from the over 70,000 seen during the 1980s.

The bulk of the increase was from China, which increased its stockpile from 350 to 410 warheads.

India, Pakistan and North Korea also upped their stockpiles, and Russia’s grew to a smaller extent, from 4,477 to 4,489, while the remaining nuclear powers maintained the size of their arsenal.

Russia and the US together still have almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons.

“The big picture is we’ve had over 30 years of the number of nuclear warheads coming down, and we see that process coming to an end now,” Mr Smith said.

The higher spending reported by Ican appeared to back that up.

Ican, which was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, found that spending on nuclear weapons had risen 3 per cent from 2021, marking the third consecutive annual increase.

The US$82.9 billion spent amounted to US$157,664 for every minute of 2022, it said in its report entitled Wasted: 2022 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending.

Washington spent US$43.7 billion, which was slightly less than a year earlier but was still far ahead of all other countries, the report showed. China was next in line with US$11.7 billion spent, followed by Russia at US$9.6 billion – both marking an increase of around 6 per cent from 2021.

India meanwhile showed the most drastic spending jump, dishing out US$2.7 billion – 21.8 per cent more than a year earlier – while Britain raised its spending level by 11 per cent to US$6.8 billion.

The report also highlighted how arms companies involved in the production of nuclear weapons received new contracts worth just under US$16 billion last year, and in turn spent US$113 million lobbying governments in the US and France alone.

Globally, nuclear-armed countries have contracts with companies to produce nuclear weapons worth at least US$278.6 billion, continuing in some cases through to 2040, it said.

Researchers at Sipri also noted that diplomatic efforts on nuclear arms control and disarmament had suffered setbacks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has for instance

suspended participation in New Start

, a Cold War-era treaty that limits warheads and allows verification by both sides.

At the same time, Mr Smith said, the increase in stockpiles could not be explained by the war in Ukraine as it takes a longer time to develop new warheads and that the bulk of the increase was among countries not directly affected.

China has also invested heavily in all parts of its military as its economy and influence have grown.

“What we’re seeing is China stepping up as a world power; that is the reality of our time,” Mr Smith said. AFP