Regional victory brings Germany’s Scholz brief respite from growing pressure within party

BERLIN – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) staved off the far right in a regional election on Sept 22, likely providing him with only a brief reprieve from growing criticism of his leadership within his own party.

The centre-left SPD staged a last-minute comeback in the eastern state of Brandenburg, where it has ruled since reunification in 1990 and Mr Scholz has his own constituency, to win the election with 30.9 per cent of the vote.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which had topped polls for the past two years in the state, won 29.2 per cent, according to provisional official results by the State Electoral Commissioner.

Still, the AfD was up 5.7 percentage points from the last Brandenburg election five years ago, after it earlier in September became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II.

The party continues to gain momentum as it capitalises on worries about a cost-of-living crisis in Europe’s largest economy, irregular immigration and a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine due to German weapons deliveries to Kyiv.

Moreover, three-quarters of those who voted for the SPD did not do so out of conviction but rather to fend off the AfD, according to the exit poll published by broadcaster ARD, in the election with a record turnout of 72.9 per cent.

Brandenburg’s SPD premier Dietmar Woidke avoided campaigning with Mr Scholz, Germany’s least popular chancellor on record, and even criticised the federal coalition’s policies and constant bickering.

Thus, the regional election results are unlikely to end the growing debate within the SPD over whether Mr Scholz is the right person to lead the party into the federal election in 2015, given what critics call his hesitant leadership and poor communication skills.

Asked on Sept 22 if the SPD federal leadership was the right one, Mr Woidke said this was not the right time to answer that question.

“But we must also learn the lessons from this election,” he said, noting the SPD needed to get closer to the people. “Especially as the federal level is concerned, there is a lot of catching up to do in the coming months and years.”

The SPD is polling just 15 per cent at the national level, down from 25.7 per cent in the 2021 federal election. That is behind the AfD on around 20 per cent and opposition conservatives on 32 per cent.

Last week, the mayor of Munich, Germany’s third-largest city, was the latest SPD party politician to suggest it should consider fielding popular Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, 64, as its candidate for the 2025 election.

Party insiders say Mr Scholz, 66, who has already announced his intention to run for a second term, is unlikely to step aside, and more senior officials remain loyal to him.

More tensions in Berlin

The junior partners in Mr Scholz’s ideologically heterogeneous coalition suffered dismal performances in the Sept 22 election, which could further stoke tensions in Berlin.

The Greens fell below the 5 per cent threshold to make it into the state Parliament for the first time in two decades with 4.1 per cent, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) scraped less than 1 per cent of the vote.

“Either the traffic light coalition shows that it can draw the necessary conclusions from these elections, or it will cease to exist,” warned FDP vice-chairman Wolfgang Kubicki. “This is a matter of a few weeks. We won’t wait until Christmas. We can’t put the country through that.”

Last week, FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner had called for an “autumn of decisions”, giving a cryptic answer when asked if his party would break up the coalition.

Still, analysts say the government is unlikely to fall apart, given that none of the three coalition parties would currently stand to gain from snap elections. Together they are currently polling at around 30 per cent combined, less than the conservatives alone. REUTERS