Satellite images reveal where Russian nukes could be stored in Belarus

NEW YORK – A newly added air defence system. A distinctive security checkpoint. And a triple fence around a bunker.

These new security features and other upgrades at a munitions depot in central Belarus reveal that Russia is building facilities there that could house nuclear warheads. If Russia does move weapons to this location, it would mark the first time it has stored them outside its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia already has nuclear warheads on its own soil that are close to Ukraine and Nato countries, but by basing some in Belarus, Russia appears to be trying to accentuate its nuclear threat and bolster its nuclear deterrent.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made reference to such a site in early 2023, saying Russia would soon be completing the construction of

“special storage for tactical nuclear weapons” in Belarus.

The New York Times analysed satellite imagery and photos, and spoke with nuclear weapons and arms control experts, to track the new construction, which started in March 2023.

The site is 193km north of the Ukrainian border at a military depot next to the town of Asipovichy.

Some of the recently built structures there have features that are unique to nuclear storage facilities at bases inside Russia. For example, a new, highly secure area is surrounded by three layers of fencing, in addition to the existing security perimeter of the entire base.

Another telltale sign is a covered loading area connected to what appears to be a concealed Soviet-era underground bunker.

Dr Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who has analysed the site, said the nuclear developments in Belarus “appear designed to unnerve Nato’s easternmost member states, but will not give Russia a significant new military advantage in the region”.

There is no consensus definition of a tactical nuclear weapon, as opposed to longer-range strategic arms. But Russia defines tactical arms as those with a range of up to 300km. Because nuclear programmes are so secretive, it is possible there are other locations in Belarus where Russia is storing warheads – and the Kremlin may have even moved some to the Asipovichy location, although all indications suggest otherwise. Both the Russian and Belarusian ministries of defence did not respond to requests for comment.

Nuclear warheads are typically stored close to military bases with the capability to deliver the weapons. The suspected nuclear storage site is in the same town as Belarus’ Iskander missiles, which can be used to launch nuclear or conventional warheads. Russia delivered the Iskanders to Belarus in 2022.

Over the past week, Russia and Belarus have made statements about nuclear weapon drills. On May 6, Russia said it would hold military exercises with troops based near Ukraine to train for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. On May 7, the Belarusian Defence Minister told state media that an inspection had begun of the Iskander forces and other nuclear weapons delivery systems.

Russia’s comments immediately provoked condemnation by the United States and Nato for “irresponsible rhetoric”.

“We are reviving Cold War practices. Hence, we are reviving Cold War risks,” said Mr Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California.

In 2023, as new fences went up to create a higher-security area at the Asipovichy base, a covered area was revamped, including a truck loading dock that now has a new roof, shielding any activities from surveillance above. These renovations are consistent with structures seen at other former Soviet nuclear storage sites. A matching dock in Hungary contains an internal entrance to an old, tree-covered underground bunker.

Mr William Moon, an independent consultant and former official with the Pentagon’s Defence Threat Reduction Agency, told the Times that the design of the Asipovichy upgrades, with triple fencing, one main entry and an emergency exit, resembles the Russian nuclear warhead storage sites that he has seen in person.

Mr Moon, who worked on nuclear warhead security with Russia, said: “When we were working with their standards, they would require that third-layer fencing.”

He said that in addition to added security, he would expect separate housing for the Russian military unit that remains in control of the nuclear warheads. Three new buildings, which appear to be either for administrative use or barracks, have been set up in the depot entrance area, and an additional area is being bulldozed.

At the entrance to the triple-fenced zone, a security checkpoint – a covered inspection area next to a guardhouse – was added in 2023. These types of structures have become fixtures over the past two decades at nuclear sites inside Russia, according to Mr Michael Duitsman, a colleague of Mr Lewis’ at the Middlebury Institute. They are a “unique feature not seen at other Russian bases”, he said.

In recent weeks, construction began on what may be new buildings. “The details are still uncertain, but construction has clearly entered a new phase,” Dr Kristensen said.

An air defence system has also been brought in to protect the site. It was initially spotted camouflaged in mid-2023, including through radar satellite imagery provided by the space company Umbra. Since September, one of the air defence vehicles has been deployed in a field about 1.6km from the bunker.

Although the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty prohibits the transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear states, it does not ban housing nuclear weapons abroad if control is maintained by the country that owns them. Under Nato’s nuclear-sharing arrangement, the US has nuclear weapons in some member countries.

A US State Department spokesperson would not say if the US was monitoring any particular site in Belarus, but said the department is keeping a close eye on the situation in order “to ensure Russia maintains control of its weapons in the event of any deployment to Belarus and upholds its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty”. A State Department report in April said the US would not change its nuclear posture in response to the developments in Belarus. NYTIMES