Russia’s war death tally spurs European scrutiny on recruitment

The number of Russian soldiers killed in action in the war on Ukraine has jumped in recent weeks, a dynamic that – if sustained – could make it hard for the Kremlin to replace troops without some form of mobilisation, according to European estimates. 

Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Kyiv’s forces killed 35,000 Russian troops in December. In the grim calculus of war, he cited an ambition to raise that number to 50,000 by this summer – a figure that would roughly double the monthly average calculated by NATO in 2025. 

The higher lethality is a result of more effective Ukrainian drone operations, with the ratio of killed to wounded skewing recently toward war dead, according to assessments from multiple European governments.

With those estimates showing that the number of fatalities has reached the Kremlin’s recruitment level, several of the people said the trajectory would make it difficult to replace losses without a mobilisation drive. 

But Russian President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to opt for such a mobilisation, an option that has proved deeply unpopular within Russia. He has avoided any repeat of a September 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists that prompted an exodus of hundreds of thousands from the country and triggered a spike in public discontent with the war.

The European assessment complicates a picture championed by Moscow – and at times echoed by US President Donald Trump – that Russia’s advantage on the ground means that victory is inevitable. The trajectory of Kremlin losses could weaken Mr Putin’s hand at the negotiating table in coming months, according to people familiar with the assessments, who spoke on condition of anonymity. 

Territory has moved to the centre of

US-brokered talks

, with Russia standing by its demand that Ukraine cede all of Donbas, which includes the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, including areas that the Kremlin’s military has failed to seize in four years of war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has rejected that option, but has touted US-provided guarantees that would prevent a future attack after a ceasefire. 

Talks in the United Arab Emirates, including another face-to-face meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, are set to resume over the weekend. 

Frozen front

And while Russian forces have taken to a relentless missile-and-drone campaign that’s

crippled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure

, leaving vast swathes of the country without heating or electricity in the winter months, its military has made only marginal progress on the front line. 

Large-scale strategic breakthroughs have remained elusive on the 1,000km front line for months, with entrenched forces limited to tactical fighting.

While Russian troops have sought to consolidate their position around the city of Slovyansk in northern Donetsk, Kyiv has reported some advances near the embattled town of Pokrovsk, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. 

To fill its ranks, Russia has relied on offering huge signing bonuses and high salaries to persuade men to sign military contracts and join the war, asserting that the drive has been sufficient to meet annual recruitment targets.

But alongside manpower, drone technology has become a crucial factor in wresting an advantage in the war, a capability that’s been mastered by Kyiv’s forces. Recently, Ukrainian personnel are able to record and verify each kill, giving European intelligence high confidence in the numbers of losses Russia is sustaining – and the difficulty it is having defending against drone attacks, the people said.

Mr Fedorov has cited the 50,000 kill rate as a “strategic objective”. The December tally “is verified on video”, the minister told reporters earlier in January. “If we reach 50,000, we will see what happens to the enemy,” he said.

Senior fellow Michael Kofman at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Russia’s killed-in-action, or KIA, statistic “increased considerably” in 2025. 

“The ratio of KIA to seriously injured was much closer to 1:1,” he said in a post on social-media platform X. 

A report by Latvia’s security services published on Jan 26 also underscored the development of drone technology becoming an increasingly important factor on the ground.

“Currently, in both the Russian and Ukrainian armies, drones of various types are responsible for 70 to 80 per cent of the dead and wounded,” it said.

“The widespread use of drones allows both sides to conduct reconnaissance, artillery fire correction and strikes on enemy troops and equipment.” BLOOMBERG