Russian satellite linked to nuclear weapon programme appears out of control, US analysts say

WASHINGTON – The secretive Russian satellite in space that US officials believe is connected to a nuclear anti-satellite weapon programme has appeared at times to be spinning uncontrollably, suggesting it may no longer be functioning, in what could be a setback for Moscow’s space weapon efforts, according to US analysts.

The Cosmos 2553 satellite, launched by Russia weeks before invading Ukraine in 2022, has had various bouts of what appears to be errant spinning over the past year, according to Doppler radar data from space-tracking firm LeoLabs and optical data from Slingshot Aerospace shared with Reuters.

Believed to be a radar satellite for Russian intelligence as well as a radiation testing platform, the satellite in 2024 became

the centre of US allegations

that Russia for years has been developing a nuclear weapon capable of destroying entire satellite networks, such as SpaceX’s vast Starlink internet system that Ukrainian troops have been using.

US officials assess that Cosmos 2553’s purpose, though not itself a weapon, is to aid Russia’s development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. Russia has denied it is developing such a weapon and says Cosmos 2553 is for research purposes.

Russia, a storied space power that launched the first man in space in 1961, has for decades been locked in a security race in space with the US that, in recent years, has intensified and seeped into public view as earth’s orbit becomes a hot spot for private sector competition and military technologies aiding ground forces.

The Cosmos 2553 satellite has been in a relatively isolated orbit some 2,000km above earth, parked in a hot spot of cosmic radiation that communications or earth-observing satellites typically avoid.

LeoLabs in November detected what appeared to be errant movements by the satellite using Doppler radar measurements from its global network of ground stations. The company in December upgraded its assessment to “high confidence” that it was tumbling based on additional radar data and imagery of the satellite taken by another space company, Mr Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at LeoLabs, told Reuters.

Russia's Ministry of Defence did not return a request for comment.

“This observation strongly suggests the satellite is no longer operational,” the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank, said of LeoLabs’ analysis in its annual Space Threat Assessment published on April 25.

US Space Command, which tracks objects in space and has condemned Russian military satellites in the past, said it was aware of a change in Cosmos 2553’s altitude but declined to provide further assessment on its current state.

The satellite earlier showed signs of odd behaviour. Slingshot, whose global telescope network has been tracking the spacecraft since its Feb 5, 2022, launch, detected movements in May 2024.

“Slingshot noted that the object’s brightness became variable, indicating a potential tumble,” a company spokesperson said.

But according to Slingshot’s latest observations, Cosmos 2553 appears to have stabilised, according to Ms Belinda Marchand, the company’s chief science officer.

Eye on orbiting objects

Commercial space-tracking services are relatively young but fast-evolving and in high demand as the number of civil and military satellites in space soars.

The US Defence Department and other countries’ militaries, keen on avoiding military miscalculation, have made better eyesight in orbit a high priority to better distinguish between various types of spacecraft manoeuvres and whether objects are civil or military assets.

Russia, a US Space Command spokesperson said, has claimed that Cosmos 2553’s mission is to test on-board instruments in a high-radiation environment, “but this does not align with its characteristics”.

“This inconsistency, paired with a demonstrated willingness to target US and allied on-orbit objects, increases the risk of misperception and escalation,” the spokesperson said.

Cosmos 2553 is one of dozens of Russian satellites in space with suspected ties to its military and intelligence programmes. The country has viewed SpaceX’s Starlink, a formidable constellation of thousands of satellites, as a legitimate military target as Ukrainian troops use the service in conjunction with weapons on the battlefield.

Russia, China and the US are pouring tens of billions of dollars into military space capabilities and secretively testing an array of technologies in orbit that could have hostile military uses, stirring concerns of miscalculations and laws of justifiable targeting in the event of a future space conflict.

The US in recent years has more openly embraced space as a military arena, shrouding much of its cosmic military and intelligence activities in secrecy while relying heavily on private companies such as billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX for major programmes.

Ms Mallory Stewart, the former US assistant secretary of state for arms control, deterrence and stability under then President Joe Biden, said in 2024 that Russia is “considering the incorporation of nuclear weapons into its counterspace programmes”.

Three US officials familiar with the intelligence said the timing of the allegations was based largely on the launch of a satellite they identified as Cosmos 2553, which escalated Washington’s understanding of Russia’s development in the programme. REUTERS