Russia seems unfazed by Trump’s ultimatum on Ukraine

Russia appears unrattled by United States President Donald Trump’s new ultimatum aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, retreating to a long-held position that it will weather any sanctions and continue pursuing its war goals in Ukraine regardless of outside pressure.

Russian commentators have also questioned whether Mr Trump has really reversed course and is fully committed to supporting Ukraine.

Mr Trump issued a

50-day ultimatum for Moscow

to come to a peace deal, before implementing penalties drafted by the US Congress on Russia and its trading partners. He also agreed to supply weapons to Ukraine, to be paid for by Europe.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called Mr Trump’s remarks “very serious” on July 15 and something that would concern Russian President Vladimir Putin. But he said Moscow would need time to analyse the position.

On July 16, Mr Peskov said he hoped the US was still pressuring Ukraine to continue peace talks. Ukraine and many Western analysts say Russia has sought to string Mr Trump along by holding talks without a real readiness to make a deal.

“Many statements have been made,” Mr Peskov said. “Many words about disappointment.” Ukraine, he added, was reading Washington’s support “as a signal to continue the war”.

On state television, Russian commentators expressed doubt about Mr Trump’s plans, saying the weapons he promised were unlikely to change the battlefield reality. Some also suggested Mr Trump would be unable to penalise buyers of Russian oil without sharply increasing global oil prices, to the detriment of the US and its Western allies.

“I don’t think the Russians are overly impressed,” said Mr Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin, adding: “There is still more bark than bite.”

Mr Gabuev said the Kremlin’s calculus remained unchanged: Moscow believes that with Ukraine losing territory and struggling to find enough troops and Western support, time is on Russia’s side. Moscow is still seeking Ukraine’s capitulation to a broad range of demands, including that it cede more territory, cap the future size of its military and stay out of military alliances.

People close to the Kremlin say Mr Putin believes he is winning and sees no reason to stop without major Ukrainian concessions. Mr Putin has not yet spoken publicly about Mr Trump’s new stance.

Moscow wants to understand what is behind Mr Trump’s threat to impose “very severe” tariffs within 50 days, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on July 15. Mr Lavrov mentioned other time frames Mr Trump had given previously, including a promise last year to end the conflict within 24 hours.

“It used to be 24 hours,” he said. “It used to be 100 days. We have been through all of this, and we really want to understand what motivates the President of the United States.”

Russia’s stable of political commentators, writing on Telegram and speaking on state television, have expressed little alarm. Some suggested Russia would continue fighting unfazed. Others said Mr Trump was bluffing. Still others thought Mr Trump remained uncommitted to Ukraine.

Mr Andrei Kartapolov, chair of the defence committee in Russia’s lower chamber of parliament, said it remained unclear from Mr Trump’s comments what types and quantities of US weapons would be delivered to Ukraine.

Speaking on the 60 Minutes talk show on Russian state television on July 15, Mr Kartapolov said the additional Patriot air defence systems that Mr Trump had approved for shipment were expensive, took a long time to produce and were susceptible to Russian strikes. (Officials told The New York Times, however, that nearly all the weapons in question are immediately available to ship to Ukraine.)

“We are ready for any development,” Mr Kartapolov said.

Mr Konstantin Simonov, a commentator on the same show, argued that Mr Trump had not, in fact, changed his position.

“He does not listen to us on the topic of the root causes of the conflict,” Mr Simonov said. “His position is simple: Let’s finish everything; quickly, fix it. Here are your geopolitical bills for my peacekeeping services.”

Mr Simonov, director general of Russian think-tank National Energy Security Fund, predicted that Mr Trump would ultimately approve new penalties against Russia.

But he questioned whether Washington would be willing to “further tighten the spiral of conflict with China”, one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, through harsh oil-related measures against Beijing. US negotiators recently brokered an agreement with China after Mr Trump began a trade war.

Russian officials have underscored that they are willing to continue direct negotiations with Ukraine. But US officials say the talks have seen little progress toward peace, though the two sides have agreed to prisoner swops and exchanges of dead soldiers.

Mr Fyodor Lukyanov, a Russian foreign policy analyst who has advised the Kremlin, wrote that Moscow likely assumes the US under Mr Trump would not become as involved in supporting Ukraine as Washington had been in recent years.

Though Mr Trump is “fed up”, Mr Lukyanov wrote, “Putin’s position has not changed one iota, and, apparently, he does not intend to adjust it in any way in order to maintain relations”. NYTIMES