Russia-friendly parties’ surge leaves German Chancellor’s SPD few options after regional vote

BERLIN – The euphoria of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) at its regional election win over the far-right AfD faded on Sept 23 as the party faced the sobering realisation that it would need the help of a pro-Russian populist party to govern.

The SPD

came first in its traditional stronghold of Brandenburg,

winning 31 per cent thanks to tactical voting against the far-right.

But its win did not mask the continued surge in support for populist parties on both sides of the political spectrum which is threatening political stability in Europe's largest economy.

The far-right, with which other parties refuse to form a coalition, hit a record high of 29 per cent, driven by the youth vote, while three mainstream parties that the SPD would traditionally consider governing with performed dismally.

That makes a kingmaker of the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which took third place just nine months after launching. SPD faces an awkward reality, given the BSW’s demand that any partner should back urgent Ukraine peace talks and oppose installing US long-range weapons in Germany.

The AfD and BSW, which are both anti-Nato, Russia-friendly, and anti-migration, are both stoking and capitalising on worries about a cost-of-living crisis, irregular immigration and a belief that Germany's sending of weapons to Kyiv is prolonging the war that Russia started.

Most of these topics, but especially the question of support for Ukraine, are federal matters far removed from regional governments' remits.

“Political stability will not be easy to achieve,” said incumbent SPD Premier Dietmar Woidke.

The Greens and liberal Free Democratic Party both fell at the 5 per cent hurdle needed to get into Parliament, while the conservatives sagged to fourth place on just 11.4 per cent. An SPD-conservative coalition would end up one seat short of a majority in the regional legislature.

“This confirms the trend in two earlier elections this month where the political centre, at least in Germany’s east, can no longer form a government without the help of radical forces on the left and right,” political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note, adding that this would give both extremes more “agenda-setting power”.

The BSW is also destined for a key role in two other eastern states where mainstream parties are all but certain to need its votes to govern if they stick to their determination not to work with the surging AfD.

Reprieve for Scholz

The result will likely give Mr Scholz only a brief respite from a debate within the SPD over whether he is the right person to lead the party into 2025’s federal election. Critics say his leadership is hesitant and his communication awkward.

Three-quarters of the SPD’s voters in Brandenburg were not motivated by conviction but wanted to fend off the AfD, according to broadcaster ARD’s exit poll. Turnout stood at a record 72.9 per cent.

Mr Woidke kept his distance from Mr Scholz, Germany’s least popular chancellor ever, during the campaign and criticised the federal coalition’s policies and constant bickering.

The SPD is polling just 15 per cent at national level, down from 25.7 per cent in the 2021 federal election. That is behind the AfD on around 20 per cent and the opposition conservatives on 32 per cent.

Last week, the mayor of Munich, Germany’s third largest city, was the latest SPD party politician to suggest it should consider fielding the popular Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, 64, as its candidate for the 2025 elections.

But party insiders say Mr Scholz, 66, who has already announced his intention to run for a second term, is unlikely to step aside.

Party co-leader Lars Klingbeil said on Sept 23 it stood firmly behind Mr Scholz for a second term.

Yet governing is not likely to get any easier for Mr Scholz with the dismal results for his junior coalition partners, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats, potentially further stoking tensions in Berlin. REUTERS