Putin's plan for fast military advance frustrated by strong defence: US official

MOSCOW • Russia's plans for Ukraine face rapidly rising costs due to delays caused by tougher-than-expected resistance from forces on the ground, even as its military retains overwhelming advantages.

A person familiar with Russian planning said the military would have hoped for faster progress.

A senior United States defence official said the US had indications that in the last 24 hours, Moscow has become frustrated by slow progress caused by an unexpectedly strong Ukrainian defence and a failure to achieve complete air dominance.

Still, the official added that Russia has so far committed only about 50 per cent of its available firepower to the war.

Pushing back against a narrative that the invasion has stumbled and is targeting population centres, a Russian official familiar with the campaign's planning said it is on track and designed specifically to avoid urban warfare in cities.

The timeframe for the operation's military goals is between one and two weeks, after which Ukraine's military should be crushed and its government replaced with one friendly to Moscow, said the official, who asked not to be identified as the matters were sensitive.

The official added that capturing cities, with the heavy loss of civilian life that would likely entail, is not on the agenda.

That account of Russian goals largely fits with the analysis of military specialists in the West and President Vladimir Putin's stated aim of "demilitarising" rather than occupying Ukraine.

"Russia still has the initiative, but it is not really achieving the goals it wanted at this point because the Ukrainians are resisting," said Dr Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based military analyst for US think-tank the Jamestown Foundation.

A rapid assault of this kind has to follow up quickly on the initial shock of invasion to make clear that resistance is futile, Dr Felgenhauer said.

With every day that Ukraine's organised defence continues, morale will rise, and with it, the number of people who take up arms as reserves.

That has implications for Russia's ability to impose control without having to eliminate resistance by force, he said.

"The next week will be decisive," Dr Felgenhauer said, adding that while a Ukrainian military collapse or putsch remains possible, cities may just have to be taken, an inevitably bloody task and a threat to Moscow's political goals, once the government is replaced.

A longer campaign will also provide more time for Ukraine's Western allies to funnel new weaponry to strengthen its defences.

Since the conflict began last Thursday, the US has approved an extra US$350 million (S$474 million) for expedited weapons supplies to Kyiv.

Germany made a historic about-face on post-war weapons policy and is now also sending arms.

"Weapons and equipment from our partners are on the way to Ukraine. The anti-war coalition is working!" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Twitter post on Saturday.

According to a Saturday assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, a US non-profit organisation, Russian forces attempted to take Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, as well as Chernihiv close to the border with Belarus, but abandoned that effort and are now heading towards Kyiv.

In the south, units that poured out of occupied Crimea have abandoned an eastward drive towards Odessa, heading instead towards the eastern city of Mariupol to trap Ukrainian forces dug into the long front lines of the separatist Donbas territories.

Overnight, Russian air attacks hit critical infrastructure including an oil depot and gas pipeline.

Ukraine's general staff on Saturday said it had shot down a Russian transport aircraft capable of carrying airborne assault troops or equipment, as well as fighter jets and helicopters, claims that could not be independently verified.

It also said many Russian vehicles have stalled for lack of fuel.

The account of progress laid out by the Russian official was more upbeat.

The official said the main battle formations of the Ukrainian army in the south and east are being encircled and the country's air defences are mostly wiped out, assessments that do not line up with what some military analysts and officials in the US are saying.

The US estimates Russia has fired 250 cruise and ballistic missiles at airfields, air defence installations and other targets.

In Kyiv, the goal is not to capture the whole city but to put enough pressure on Mr Zelensky that he either flees or surrenders, the official said.

Much larger Russian units are forcing their way towards Kyiv.

After that, a Russian-backed government-in-waiting will take control and eventually hold elections, the official said.

Ukraine would be carved into three parts: The eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk that Mr Putin recently recognised as independent states; a rump Ukraine under de facto Russian control that would pay for its own reconstruction; and the western regions of Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv, which are strongholds of pro-European sentiment that would be left alone.

The new, shrunken version of Ukraine would have no armed forces of its own. Its air space would, however, become part of the Russian air defence system and there might be a permanent Russian military presence, the official said.

BLOOMBERG