Putin's invasion pushes Finland, Sweden to Nato

Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine was ostensibly triggered by fears of its neighbour joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).

But the move now appears to have spectacularly backfired after another neighbouring country, Finland, yesterday announced that it would apply to join the alliance without delay.

Sweden is likely to follow suit, further bolstering Nato membership at a time when Moscow has become increasingly isolated diplomatically amid military setbacks in Ukraine.

The road to formal entry of Finland and Sweden into the bloc could take anywhere from four to 12 months. But no timeframe is likely to be palatable to Mr Putin, who views Nato's expansion up to Russia's borders as a security threat.

Russia and Finland share a 1,340km-long border just 170km from Russia's second-largest city of St Petersburg.

What is more, Russia regards the Kola Peninsula in its Arctic north-west - which stretches eastward from the border with Finland and Norway - as a "strategic bastion" key to national security. It is home to its northern naval fleet.

Russia has warned Finland and Sweden that it would strengthen its land, naval and air forces in the Baltic Sea in response to any move to join Nato. But a bigger concern could be the deployment of Russia's nuclear arsenal in the hitherto "nuclear-free" Baltic, with the Kremlin threatening to station missiles in its Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania.

Both Finland and Sweden are likely to seek guarantees that the bloc's members would come to their defence in case of Russian aggression as they await ratification.

This would likely entail an increased Nato troop presence in the Nordic region or enhanced Nato exercises with Finland, for example, during the process.

Assurances have come from Nato that ratification would come "quickly", and the United States, Germany and Britain have guaranteed their support in case of a new Russian invasion.

Finland and Russia fought two bloody wars between 1939 and 1944, and Helsinki has for decades avoided doing anything to antagonise Russia.

But on Wednesday, asked whether Finland would join Nato and provoke Russia, President Sauli Niinisto did not mince words.

Citing the Ukraine conflict as the reason, he said: "My response would be that (Mr Putin) caused this. Look at the mirror."

Meanwhile, an application from hitherto neutral Sweden could stem from the fact that barring Finland, all the other Nordic nations - Denmark, Norway and Iceland - are already Nato members. Public support for Sweden to join Nato is also at never-seen-before levels.