Putin to press on with war despite economic woes, Lithuania warns
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The intelligence assesses that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war goals remain unchanged despite the military and economic damage from the war.
PHOTO: EPA
VILNIUS – Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to keep spending on strengthening Russia’s military despite a weakening economy, according to a Lithuanian intelligence assessment.
The country’s growing economic difficulties aren’t enough to force Mr Putin to end the war in Ukraine, where he’s likely still seeking a breakthrough on the battlefield, the Lithuanian National Threat Assessment report said.
This determination remains a major source of concern to its neighbours as Moscow continues to add new military units on NATO’s borders even with the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, it said.
The intelligence assesses that Mr Putin’s war goals remain unchanged despite the military and economic damage from the war and the Kremlin is ready to use repression and propaganda to respond to any signs of social or political instability.
Low unemployment, rapid wage growth and high demand for labour in the defence sector “have so far directly cushioned the effect of the economic slowdown on society,” the report said. “It is unlikely that deteriorating living standards will pose a risk to the Kremlin’s political stability.”
The report offers sobering assessment of how much Mr Putin is ready to stretch his resources to achieve the military goals and contrasts with views from some western experts that economic cracks that are starting to emerge may force the Kremlin to negotiate.
Russia has shown no desire to compromise and its goals remain unchanged – to seize more Ukrainian territory and to change the balance of power in Europe, according to the report.
“Putin likely believes that he has more will and ability to mobilise resources to achieve these goals than Ukraine and its supporters do,” it said.
Mr Putin has repeatedly dismissed warnings that Russia may attack NATO states as “complete nonsense.”
Critics note that he also denied Russia planned to invade Ukraine before the February 2022 invasion
Russia is rapidly adapting its defence industry to wartime demands.
Weapons production has advanced to cover its needs in Ukraine due to significant funding for the military.
The industry has also been able to source local alternatives to many western technologies to avoid sanctions and other import constraints.
This resilience is only likely to grow, according to the report.
But Lithuanian intelligence warned against any easing of Western pressure on the Kremlin.
If a peace deal is achieved and sanctions lifted, Russia would increase its military capabilities faster and be ready for a limited military action in the Baltic region within two years.
Under this scenario, Moscow would modernise and increase its army by 30 per cent to 50 per cent in the next six to 10 years with strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition fully restored.
Even now, Russia continues its military build-up along the alliance’s eastern borders with brigades expanded into divisions and new military units, according to the report.
The Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad, which shares a border with Lithuania and Poland, is undergoing an expansion of its naval infantry and the development of military infrastructure such as warning radar, storage facilities and logistics base for strategic reserve, it said.
Once completed, the over-the-horizon radar station 29B6 “Container” will increase Russia’s scope to monitor airspace and detect aircraft and missiles several thousand kilometres away, according to the report.
The Baltic Sea is important to the Kremlin as 40 per cent of its oil exports pass through its waters carried by shadow fleet vessels.
As Europe ramps up military spending, Moscow increasingly perceives it as a growing military threat and “a likely major obstacle to its imperial ambitions”, the report said.
Russia’s military intelligence is seeking to carry out more dangerous sabotage operations in European countries by recruiting experienced individuals with criminal record.
Russia’s foreign military intelligence, GRU, is “seeking to improve the implementation of its operations and address their chaotic execution”, the report said.
“These operations could pose a greater threat to public security.” BLOOMBERG
