Polish opposition looks set to oust ruling nationalists in major political shift

WARSAW - Poland’s liberal, pro-EU opposition on Monday looked on track to form the next government after official partial results and an exit poll showed the ruling nationalists

losing their parliamentary majority

in the nation’s most pivotal election in decades.

The incumbent Law and Justice (PiS) party has repeatedly clashed with the European Union over the rule of law, media freedom, migration and LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender) rights since it swept to power in 2015.

Opposition parties have vowed to mend ties with Brussels and scrap reforms that they say have eroded Polish democracy.

A late exit poll by Ipsos published on Monday afternoon gave PiS 36.1 per cent of the vote, which would translate into 196 lawmakers in the 460-seat Lower House of Parliament.

Opposition parties, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk’s liberal grouping Civic Coalition (KO), were projected to win a combined 248 seats, with the KO seen winning 31 per cent of ballots cast.

Official results after 63 per cent of voting districts had been counted put PiS at 37.5 per cent, KO at 28.6 per cent and KO’s ally, the centre-right Third Way, on 14.4 per cent. Generally, more conservative rural areas and small towns report their results faster than large cities where liberal parties are strongest.

Victory for the opposition in a vote seen by analysts as the most significant for Europe in years could potentially redefine the relationship between Brussels and the largest EU member state in central and eastern Europe.

Polish financial markets surged on the prospect of a government led by pro-EU liberals.

“The ousting of the nationalists will help to restore damaged relations with the EU,” said Mr Lee Hardman, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank.

“The zloty should continue to strengthen further in the near term, in anticipation of improving relations with the EU that will help to support growth and attract capital inflows.”

Mr Tusk has said he would seek to unblock some €110 billion (S$159 billion) of EU funds earmarked for Poland, which have been frozen due to rule-of-law concerns.

Lengthy coalition talks

Even if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at

forming the government

.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party. On Monday, Mr Duda urged patience until the full election results were known. “We are waiting calmly, democracy in Poland is stable,” he said.

However, with the far-right Confederation seen winning just 6.4 per cent, below expectations, according to the exit poll, PiS will struggle to forge a new government.

The leader of the centre-right Polish Peasants’ Party, part of the Third Way, ruled out on Monday joining a PiS-led coalition.

“People who voted for us wanted change, they wanted PiS removed from power,” Dr Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told private radio station RMF FM.

Poland’s electoral commission put the turnout in Sunday’s vote at 72 per cent, based on partial results, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989, underlining the high stakes of this election.

Television footage showed several hundred, mostly young people, queueing outside one polling station in the western city of Wrocław. It closed just before 3am, some six hours after voting was officially meant to end.

In an aggressive campaign in which it sought to paint Mr Tusk as a German stooge, PiS cast the election as a choice between uncontrolled illegal migration under the rule of leaders beholden to foreign interests, and a government that would protect Poland’s borders, security and traditions.

However, PiS faced mounting discontent over what critics said was democratic backsliding and an erosion of women’s rights after the government enforced a near-total abortion ban in 2021.

PiS was also accused of using lucrative positions in state-controlled firms to reward supporters, and of fuelling inflation with loose fiscal policies.

“I expect that women will now have more rights, that they will feel safer,” said 43-year-old banking administrator Iga Frackiewicz.

“I also hope that the nepotism will end – for example, in state companies and in other places.” REUTERS