'No evidence of decline' in Covid-19 rates in England's third lockdown

LONDON (REUTERS, AFP) - A third pandemic lockdown appears to be having little impact on rates of Covid-19 in England, researchers warned on Thursday (Jan 21), with prevalence of the disease "very high" and "no evidence of decline" in the first 10 days of renewed restrictions.

Until rates of Covid-19 are reduced substantially, health services "will remain under extreme pressure" and the number of deaths will continue to rise rapidly, researchers leading Imperial College London's React-1 prevalence study said.

"The number of Covid-19 in-patients (in hospital) is extremely high at the moment, and we can't expect that to drop unless we can achieve lower levels of prevalence," said Professor Steven Riley, an expert on infectious disease dynamics who co-led the work.

"The fact that (prevalence) is not going down has potentially serious consequences"

Prime Minister Boris Johnson put England into a third national lockdown on Jan 5, closing bars, restaurants and most schools, and allowing only essential shops to open.

Ministers have appealed to people to stay at home as much as they can to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed and to give authorities time to roll out Covid-19 vaccines to the elderly and those at highest risk.

The government's chief scientific adviser, Dr Patrick Vallance has said on Wednesday that some British hospitals resemble a "war zone" due to the influx of coronavirus patients.

"When you go into a hospital, this is very, very bad at the moment with enormous pressure and in some cases it looks like a war zone in terms of the things that people are having to deal with," Dr Vallance told Sky News.

Presenting his latest data - covering Jan 6 to Jan 15 - Prof Riley said prevalence rates were at 1.58 per cent, the highest recorded by the React-1 study since it started in May 2020. This is a rise of more than 50 per cent since the last readout in mid-December.

Prof Riley also cautioned against pinning immediate hopes on Covid-19 shots.

More than four million people have received a jab since the inoculation programme began in early December.

"The vaccine is only going to have a very limited impact on prevalence in the short-term," he told reporters.

Dr Vallance also warned that "vaccines are not going to do the heavy lifting for us at the moment", and efforts to cut the close-contact spread of the virus are needed for some time to come.

"This is about, I'm afraid, the restrictive measures which we're all living under and carrying on with those," he added.

Dr Paul Elliott, an expert in epidemiology and public health medicine and director of the React programme, said the stubborn levels of Covid-19 infection may be in part due to a more transmissible variant of the virus which emerged late last year.

"We've really got to double down on the public health measures - wear face covers, keep your distance and wash your hands," Dr Elliott said. "There will be continued pressure until we can get the prevalence down."

The British government reported a fresh daily record rise in deaths on Wednesday with 1,820 people dying within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test.

Britain's mortality rate has risen nearly 15 per cent over the past week. However, new infections - at 38,905 - were down from a recent peak of 68,053 on Jan 8.

The health ministry said the full impact of the lockdown would not yet be reflected in the prevalence figures, but added the survey highlighted the importance of everyone staying at home and following the restrictions.