WASHINGTON • It is a cruel choice, but a critical one - lives or livelihoods?
It is illustrated by a University of Pennsylvania study which suggests that relaxing lockdowns by the end of next month may save 18 million jobs in the United States but could add over 200,000 deaths from the coronavirus.
But globally, the verdict is unambiguous: Safety comes first.
The latest findings of the Edelman Trust Barometer challenge the notion that "lockdown fatigue" is rising among populations hit by the pandemic, reported Reuters.
Overall, 67 per cent of the 13,200-plus people interviewed worldwide between April 15 and April 23 agreed with the statement: "The government's highest priority should be saving as many lives as possible even if it means the economy will recover more slowly."
Just one-third backed the following assertion: "It is becoming more important for the government to save jobs and restart the economy than to take every precaution to keep people safe."
The study, produced by US communications company Edelman, was based on fieldwork carried out in Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Britain and the US.
What is more, the trust that the populations of these countries reposed in their key drivers - including governments and businesses - now stood at an all-time high of 61 per cent.
Separately, the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) indicated that even if states and cities kept to their current restrictions and social distancing measures, the number of coronavirus cases in the US could reach 2.25 million by June 30, with deaths totalling over 116,000.
This will also see job losses totalling 18.6 million.
But if the states reopen all their businesses and abandon any social distancing guidelines, PWBM predicts a worst-case scenario of eight million Covid-19 cases and nearly 350,000 deaths in the same period.
However, according to the model, "almost all net job losses between May 1 and June 30 would be eliminated".
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, a supporter of US President Donald Trump, said the dilemma is that while everyone wanted to save lives, there was certainly going to be deaths - so how much economic devastation should one accept as a cost?
The Edelman survey also found that 73 per cent of respondents in the 11 major markets felt that pandemic-related restrictions on freedom of movement were entirely reasonable and appropriate, while 61 per cent were willing to give up more of their personal health and location tracking information to the government than normal to contain the spread of the virus.
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Trust in media at record levels
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Trust in the media is at an all-time high, judging by responses to the Edelman Trust Barometer's spring survey, with demand for reliable information on the rise due to the coronavirus pandemic.
While just 46 per cent of the respondents in a similar survey conducted in 2012 voiced trust in the media, that had risen to 51 per cent by January this year.
This month, the percentage of respondents who expressed trust in the media rose to a record 56 per cent.
The traditional media, in particular, was looked upon as the most trusted source of information, with 69 per cent of respondents saying that they would rely on it.
Search engines, on the other hand, received a nod from just 64 per cent of respondents, while privately owned media was viewed as a source to trust by only around half of the respondents.
Social media was not seen as trustworthy by more than half of the respondents.
People did indicate there was room for improvement by the media when it came to doing original, investigative reporting to help readers understand the full story behind the pandemic and its potential lasting impact.
Only 46 per cent of respondents said the media was doing this well or very well.
In addition, just 40 per cent of respondents said the media was doing well or very well when it came to not allowing politics and ideological biases to affect its reporting.
"It's complicated because you have two crises simultaneously - a health crisis and an economic crisis," said Mr Richard Edelman, chief executive of Edelman. "But people are saying - 'We've already had six to seven weeks of this (restriction on activity), what's another week or two?'"
Governments around the world have varied widely in their responses to the pandemic since its first known outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan in early December last year. The authorities in New Zealand and Vietnam have been praised for early moves to halt the spread with social distancing measures, while governments in the US, Britain, Japan, Russia and elsewhere have faced criticism for a lack of preparedness.
The Edelman survey found, however, that trust in the institution of government had risen across the board, with an overall gain of 11 points from its January survey to an all-time study high of 65 per cent.
Conversely, only 29 per cent agreed that CEOs and business leaders were doing an "outstanding job" meeting the demands of the moment. "Business will be looked at very closely in the months ahead," Mr Edelman said.
PWBM projected that even a partial reopening in the US will cause virus cases and the death toll to rise. It estimated that if the US were to open up partially, it will register 3.33 million cases, with 161,664 deaths, while job losses will be at 11.3 million.
The number of deaths projected by PWBM is higher than the figures given by Mr Trump. He previously said the death toll from the coronavirus will be around 60,000. On Sunday, he acknowledged that the virus has proved more devastating than expected. "We're going to lose anywhere from 75,000 to 100,000 people," he said. "That's a horrible thing. We shouldn't lose one person over this."
The pandemic has also wiped out all the job gains in the US since the Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009, with more than 26 million Americans having filed for unemployment benefits over the past five weeks.
Meanwhile, an internal government document forecasts that new coronavirus cases will surge to 200,000 per day by June 1, and the daily death toll to 3,000, according to both The New York Times and The Washington Post. That compares with a current daily average of 25,000 to 30,000 new cases, and 1,500 to 2,000 deaths. Currently, the US has over 1.21 million cases and over 70,000 deaths.
