Nato tries to remember what it means to fight a European war
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Some officials say allies further away from Russia still need to be convinced that their own security is also at risk.
PHOTO: EPA-EFE
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PABRADE, Lithuania – Late last month, a German convoy of 1,000 troops with tanks, drones and armoured vehicles made its way some 1,200km to a Lithuanian military compound in Pabrade
The huge military exercise, integrating German and Lithuanian troops, began with reconnaissance and turned into a noisy, dusty battle that, not surprisingly, Nato won.
Leopard tanks covered in camouflage raced back and forth in a haze of dirt, firing as they went; drones buzzed in the air; armoured infantry vehicles spun through battlefield; soldiers covered with brush advanced slowly, weapons blazing.
The Nato exercise was meant to convince Lithuania and other countries bordering Russia that the promise of rapid reinforcement and collective defence was a reality.
It was also intended to demonstrate the alliance’s new commitment to countering a more dangerous Russia, which argues that its war in Ukraine is a necessary response to what it considers Nato’s effort to dismantle Moscow’s sphere of influence.
As Nato leaders prepare to gather in nearby Vilnius,
In the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022,
What happened on that territory, before Russian troops were forced to pull back, has become a symbol of wanton destruction and possible war crimes. Citing the devastation in the Ukrainian cities of Bucha, Irpin and Kherson, Nato’s front line states have convinced allies that collective defence means vastly enhanced deterrence.
The military alliance is responding, developing detailed war plans and a commitment of troops, equipment and money not seen since the end of the Cold War. Political approval of those plans is at the centre of the annual summit meeting.
While political language about Ukraine’s future relationship with the alliance and the practical military help promised in the current conflict are likely to dominate coverage, Nato’s main task is to defend its 31 members.
Speaking in Pabrade alongside the Lithuanian president and German defence minister, the Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, insisted that Nato was a purely defensive alliance, but with a sharper sense of the threat it faced.
“This exercise sends a clear message: Nato is ready to defend every inch of allied territory,” he said, adding, “We are demonstrating that we can also reinforce quickly, whenever needed.”
As it evolves strategically and operationally, Nato is moving to what the military calls “deterrence by denial”, which in practical terms means more troops along the Russian border.
At the moment, the total number of troops for the eight battle groups along the eastern flank is only 10,232, Nato says. The leaders at Vilnius are expected to approve plans on how to scale up to 4,000 to 5,000 troops – a brigade – in each of those eight countries, with clearly defined tasks and pre-positioned equipment.
Separately, since the Russian invasion began, around 40,000 troops drawn from member nations were put on standby under Nato command, but officials acknowledge that the forces it can quickly send to battle are currently nowhere near that level. Under its new plans, Nato aims, at least, to have up to 300,000 troops ready to move to its eastern flank within 30 days, although officials call that number “aspirational”.
The main point, Mr Stoltenberg said, is that the new regional plans detail what each country must do to help defend its assigned territory, and with what equipment. Those troops will exercise regularly with allies on the territory they are assigned to defend.
As Nato changes, Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of Nato’s Military Committee, was blunt about what needed to be done.
“We have to go and do our work to reach the higher number of forces with a higher readiness,” he said. “We need to exercise against the plans. We need to buy the capabilities that we require.”
“It is not a switch,” he added. “That will take a considerable number of years to get there.”
It will also take convincing the leaders and voters of larger allies further away from Russia that their own security is at risk, and that they are going to have to pay the considerable price of a more militarised Europe for decades to come.
And that means being truly prepared to come to the aid of smaller countries bordering Russia, such as Lithuania, while rebuilding their weak militaries and learning to rely less on the United States.
For Lithuania, a country of 2.7 million people that borders Russia and Belarus, getting Germany to commit to permanently stationing a brigade inside its borders became a domestic political issue. But Lithuania is not ready to host a brigade, and after this exercise, the Germans took their troops and equipment back home.
Still, at Pabrade, Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, promised to station a brigade of 4,000 troops in the country – once Lithuania constructed the necessary infrastructure, including housing, schools and warehouses for ammunition and vehicles.
“Germany used to be Nato’s eastern flank, and we could always rely on our Nato allies,” he said. Three decades later, “the eastern flank is the Baltics, Poland, Slovakia”.
As the largest economy in Europe and a vital member of Nato, Mr Pistorius said, “Germany, of course, is willing and will be able to take responsibility now for the new eastern flank.”
Lithuania’s president, Mr Gitanas Nauseda, praised the German decision and said his country had started building for the brigade and hoped to finish by 2025 or 2026.
“The alliance is as strong as its most exposed spots,” he said. NYTIMES
