‘Massive’ EU sanctions on Russia would take time and US help, say diplomats

BRUSSELS/PARIS - “Massive” sanctions that European leaders threatened to impose on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine face formidable political obstacles and would need US support to succeed, said officials and diplomats.

The leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland declared in Kyiv on May 10 that

Russia would be hit by new punitive measures

if it did not heed calls for a 30-day ceasefire within days.

That pledge failed to move the Russian leader, who instead called for direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15. US President Donald Trump backed that call, undermining the European leaders’ efforts to show Mr Trump was firmly on board with their threat.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, however, repeated the leaders’ threat on May 13, saying that “if there is no real progress this week, we want to work together at (the) European level for a significant tightening of sanctions”.

He said Europe would aim to target sectors including energy and financial markets. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on May 12 that the European Commission had been asked to propose new sanctions in those areas.

However, diplomats say that after 16 sanction packages imposed on Russia by the European Union over the war in Ukraine, it is increasingly difficult to get the necessary unanimity among the bloc’s 27 members to pass major new measures.

Hungary, which maintains close ties with Russia, has often blocked or sought to water down major new sanctions on Moscow.

Diplomats say that only pressure from Mr Trump’s administration might make Budapest change tack, but there has been no sign of that so far.

Some European officials say they are coordinating with the US on possible further sanctions. But it is not yet clear if Mr Trump is willing to join forces with the Europeans.

Sanctions package

EU envoys are set to agree on a 17th package of sanctions on May 14 that primarily hits Russia’s shadow fleet in combination with separate measures on chemical weapons, human rights and Russian hybrid threats. Those are easier to pass as the bloc runs out of major targets. Attempts to hit Russia’s gas and nuclear sectors, for example, have consistently hit the buffers.

Some officials have resurrected ideas, such as lowering a US$60 price cap on Russian oil, agreed by the Group of Seven nations. That would require Washington’s support, though, and there has been no change in the last two years despite the group’s pledge to periodically review the level.

Diplomats said the leaders’ bold words risked undermining the EU’s credibility if they could not follow up with action. “You keep them (sanctions) on the table as a possible pressure lever, but putting down an ultimatum when you can’t really do it is not serious,” one said.

“There’s no appetite at all at the European level for this sort of sanctions. It’s hard enough to just get a basic package.”

A senior European official said: “The danger here, obviously, is that the Russians might see this as a bluff.” REUTERS