London contemplates ‘childless’ future as families leave British capital

LONDON – London’s child population is collapsing faster than anywhere in Britain as unaffordable housing and childcare costs drive young families away, a report by the London Assembly found.

In the decade through 2023, the number of residents under 10 years of age fell by 99,100 as families moved out and fertility rates crashed – even while the capital’s overall population increased by 506,000.

Falling pupil numbers have prompted 100 of London’s 2,500 schools to close since 2018; mostly in inner London.

If trends persist, the capital could become “a childless city,” the report warned.

“The number of children living in the capital has fallen faster than anywhere else in the UK since the early 2010s,” said London Assembly’s Economy, Culture and Skills Committee chair Hina Bokhari.

“With the highest housing and childcare costs in the country, raising a family in London is simply out of reach for many.”

The study was commissioned to help the committee identify the causes and consequences for the city’s schools and public services.

It said that empty school properties should be re-purposed rather than sold, in case the pupil population bounces back in decades to come.

Several factors explain the drop in the number of children in London, the report said.

Birth rates peaked in 2012 but have since fallen 20 per cent and are now 10 per cent below the national average in inner London, despite an increase in women of childbearing age over the same period. 

The decline is down to a lower fertility rate, which has fallen below 1.2 births per woman.

That compares to an England and Wales average of 1.41 – well below the 2.1 level needed, in economists’ terms, for the population to maintain itself without immigration.

Dr Bernice Kuang, research fellow in demography at the University of Southampton, told the report’s authors that people are waiting to have children because it takes longer “to establish yourself in your career, to buy a house, to leave the parental home”.

The average age of new mothers in London is 32.5 – the highest across England and Wales, the report said.

Londoners planning a family are also increasingly choosing to leave the British capital.

There has been a steady uptick in the net outflow of those aged between 25 and 44 since 2008, and since 2016 outflows for that group have been greater than for all other ages.

The report pinned the blame on unaffordable housing and childcare.

The typical home in London costs 11.1 times the average local salary, compared with 7.7 times across England.

Rents in London are 60 per cent higher than for England as a whole.

Nursery costs for a child under two in inner London are 34 per cent higher than the English average, and only partially covered by the state.

With families leaving, waiting longer or having fewer children, pupil numbers are tumbling.

That poses a financial risk to schools as their income depends on the student intake.

Almost two thirds of the 100 schools that have closed since 2018 were in inner London, and the majority were for primary children aged 11 and under.

“Similar large changes in pupil movements are not seen elsewhere in England,” the report said.

London Councils, which represents local government across London, expects a 2.5 per cent fall in places for four year olds between 2025-2026 and 2029-2030.

For inner London boroughs, the drop will be 6.2 per cent.

That will affect secondary schools for those aged 11 to 18. As schools become less financially resilient it may be harder to recruit teachers, the report warned, damaging standards.

Greater London Authority population projections see the decline in child numbers continuing until 2034, when they are expected to rebound from their lowest point, but only back to 2024 levels.

The report said policy should be prepared to adapt to a fluctuating child population by re-purposing buildings rather than selling them, to “future-proof London’s school system.” BLOOMBERG