Local elections test UK’s main parties as hard-right rises

London - UK voters went to the polls in local elections on May 1 tipped to inflict losses on the country’s two main parties and confirm the rise of hard-right populists, portending the splintering of a century-long political duopoly.

The polls in England are the first since Mr Keir Starmer became Labour prime minister and Ms Kemi Badenoch took over at the helm of the struggling opposition Conservatives in 2024.

The anti-immigrant Reform UK party is expected to make gains, as are the centrist Liberal Democrats and left-wing Greens, confirming a trend that Britain is entering an era of multi-party politics.

Urging people to vote Labour, Mr Starmer said in a message on X on May 1: “The choice is clear.”

“Labour councillors, mayors and MPs working together to bring change to Britain. Or chaos and division with parties who have no plan for change.”

In her final message, Ms Badenoch sought to drum up support for her Tories, saying: “If you want a great council, don’t just hope for it, vote for it.”

“British politics appears to be fragmenting,” political scientist John Curtice wrote in the Telegraph this week, adding the polls “will likely be the first in which as many as five parties are serious players”.

British politics have been dominated by the centre-left Labour party and centre-right Tories since the early 20th century.

But surveys show Britons are disillusioned with the two establishment parties amid anaemic economic growth, high levels of irregular immigration and flagging public services.

Labour won a parliamentary majority in July with just 33.7 per cent of the vote, the lowest share for any party winning a general election since World War II.

The Conservatives won just 24 per cent of the vote, securing only 121 seats in the 650-seat Parliament as the party endured its worst-ever election defeat.

Reform UK, led by Eurosceptic politician Nigel Farage, picked up five seats, an unprecedented haul for a British hard-right party, while the Liberal Democrats won 61 more MPs than at the previous election and the Greens quadrupled their representation to four.

Those results mean “fragmentation is baked in” to May 1’s council, mayoral, and single parliamentary vote, according to political scientist Rob Ford.

“We will see losses from the Tories and Labour, but not equally,” the University of Manchester politics professor told AFP.

A total of 1,641 seats across local authorities are up for grabs on May 1 – only a fraction of England’s 17,000 councillors – as are six mayoral posts and a parliamentary seat in the northwest English area of Runcorn and Helsby.

Squeezed on both sides

Mr Farage’s party is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the parliamentary by-election.

Labour has faced criticism over welfare cuts and tax rises during a difficult return to power following 14 years in opposition, while Mr Starmer’s popularity has tanked in opinion polls.

Mr Starmer’s task in Runcorn is made more difficult by the vote being sparked by Labour MP Mike Amesbury quitting after receiving a suspended jail sentence for punching a man.

Labour won the constituency with a 53 per cent vote share in 2024, while Reform got just 18 per cent, but Mr Starmer has acknowledged it will be “tough” to win.

On April 29, Reform UK topped a YouGov poll of voting intentions in Britain with 26 per cent, three points ahead of Labour and six up on the Conservatives.

Victory in Runcorn, winning mayoralties like Greater Lincolnshire and putting hundreds of councillors in place would help Reform UK spread its grassroots activism before the next general election – which is likely in 2029.

Polls opened at 7am and were due to close at 10pm, with results due to start coming in on May 2 morning.

Under threat from Reform on the right, the Tories are also being squeezed on the left by the Liberal Democrats, the traditional third party, which hopes for gains in the wealthy south.

As Labour edges rightwards it is facing a growing challenge from the Greens on the left.

“For the big parties, it’s like the couple who are having to wrestle with the duvet that’s too small,” said Prof Ford. “Wherever they pull the duvet, they’re going to get exposed somewhere.” AFP