Italy’s working age population set to shrink by one-fifth, statistics agency says

ROME - Italy’s working age population is set to shrink by more than a fifth over the next 25 years, said national statistics agency Istat on July 28, highlighting the country’s severe demographic challenges.

Italy is battling a falling birth rate and shrinking population. In 2024, new births dropped to a record low of around 370,000, and the population fell by 37,000 to 58.93 million, continuing a decade-long trend.

In its latest demographic forecast, Istat predicted that the number of people in the 15 to 64 age group would fall from 37.4 million in 2024, to 29.7 million in 2050, with their share of the total resident population falling to 54.3 per cent from 63.5 per cent.

In the same period, the percentage of residents over the age of 65 is projected to rise to 34.6 per cent of the total, from 24.3 per cent currently, and the share of children up to the age of 14 is projected to fall to 11.2 per cent from 12.2 per cent.

Italy’s long-declining birth rate is considered a national emergency. But despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her predecessors’ pledges to tackle the issue, no one has so far been able to halt the drop.

Istat estimated on July 28 that Italy’s resident population would fall to 54.7 million by 2050, although it added that its forecast had a large margin of variability and uncertainty linked to migration trends.

In a 2024 report, Scope Ratings said Italy’s demographics were the worst in Europe in terms of economic growth potential between 2023 and 2040, with a rapidly ageing population posing a threat to strained public finances. REUTERS