Germany's Covid-19 fight: Its head start in spring takes a fall

BERLIN - When Covid-19 first hit Europe in February this year, Dr Angela Merkel, a physicist by education, quickly understood the perils a pandemic with exponential growth could bring. The German Chancellor managed to swiftly get the heads of the 16 German states on board and by March, a severe lockdown was already in place.

The spreading of the virus seemed to be under control and Germany was hailed for its successful and effective crisis management. Now, only nine months later, this optimism is gone.

It was Mr Horst Seehofer, Minister of the Interior in Dr Merkel's Cabinet, who conceded the obvious. The advantage that Germany had gained on the pandemic in spring has been squandered, he said in an interview this month. Mr Seehofer, one of the strongmen in the government, made clear that the citizens were not to blame for this failure. "Above all this is due to insufficient measures," he is quoted as saying.

In fact, in November, Germany went into lockdown light, hoping this could pre-empt stricter measures and prevent further damage to the economy. This, however, the magazine Der Spiegel now calls nothing less than "possibly the biggest political misjudgment of the year".

Promises were made but not kept, hopes first raised but then dashed.

When it became clear that the reduced version of the lockdown did not do the trick, a rigid one was imposed that went into effect a week ago. The political back and forth was grist to the mill for those who always believed that the government cannot be trusted.

In fact, German politics these days is mainly driven by numbers - and they are sobering: Daily new infections have climbed well over 30,000, which is an increase by one-third compared with one month earlier. Although the death rate, with a total of over 26,000, is still a rather low one in Europe, this indicator is also clearly on the rise.

The occupancy rate of intensive care beds in hospitals saw a steep upswing to more than 5,000, almost doubling since early November. Nursing staff are working at capacity. Caretakers at hospitals and nursing homes often have to continue their service even if they are infected themselves.

During the first lockdown in spring, the wave of infections could be reversed, but this is not happening now.

Infection rates are still rising, driving up concerns that at some point, hospitals may not be able to handle all new incoming patients. A few days ago, one doctor in a hospital in the state of Saxony has already said that the so-called triage system had to be applied.

Triage is used in crisis situations when decisions have to be taken on which of the patients will receive treatment. The basic values underlying triage decisions include prioritisation of medical urgency, capacity to benefit, fairness, severity of the health condition of the patient and likely outcome.

The doctor's statement produced a public outcry - but also brought to light how severe the situation has become.

The rude awakening in the autumn months of September to November makes the restrictions of the summer look like a cakewalk. Although Dr Merkel time and again was telling the public that the winter months from December will be much worse, some heads of the German states were more concerned about their local businesses and did not heed the warnings.

Since many of the restrictions in Germany have to be implemented at the regional level, the options to act are limited for a chancellor. The federal system is based on persuasion rather than decreeing policies.

Addressing the press after the frequent meetings with the regional leaders, Dr Merkel looked tired, exhausted and frustrated. She often could not prevail over local premiers, even those who were from her own party, the conservative CDU. Two political drawbacks have contributed to Dr Merkel's weakness.

Since she gave up the chairmanship of the party two years ago, Dr Merkel has lost influence within party structures. A loss of political clout also came when she announced that she will not run for another term as chancellor in the upcoming elections in 2021. Dr Merkel is not a lame duck yet, but her political environment is clearly already focused on a future without her.

While the Chancellor is accused of not having been strict enough in the past months, another conflict is already on the horizon. Although BioNTech, one of the companies that was among the first in developing a vaccine against Covid-19, is German, it now looks as if Germany will not be able to acquire enough doses to get people vaccinated until summer next year.

Berlin strictly wanted to toe the line of the European Union and not make use of the home advantage. This means that Germany will get the vaccine not earlier than all the other members of the EU and only according to an allocation key. But according to a report in Der Spiegel, the EU may not have contracted enough doses or signed agreements with the wrong partners.

While the vaccine production of BioNTech-Pfizer is on track, British-Swedish AstraZeneca is in trouble with its test runs, French Sanofi may only get the green light at the end of 2021 and Curevac, also German, probably needs another half-year until its vaccine is ready. Germany, which needs a total of up to 120 million doses to get around 70 per cent of the population vaccinated twice, now probably has to wait well into autumn or even winter next year until full immunisation is achieved.

Meanwhile, vaccinations are already under way in Britain and the United States.