Germans vote under shadow of far-right surge, Trump

BERLIN - Germans went to the polls on Feb 23 in a pivotal election, with the conservatives the strong favourites after a campaign rocked by a far-right surge and the dramatic return of US President Donald Trump.

Front runner Friedrich Merz has vowed a tough rightward shift if elected to win back voters from the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is eyeing a record result after a string of deadly attacks blamed on asylum seekers.

If he takes over from embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), as widely predicted given a yawning poll gap, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader has promised a “strong voice” in Europe at a time of chaotic disruption.

Casting his ballot in Berlin, Mr Daniel Hofmann, a 62-year-old urban planner, said it was his “civic duty” to vote as “right now we are going through very uncertain times; there must be a change, a transformation”.

More than 59 million Germans are eligible to vote and first estimates based on exit polls are expected soon after polls close at 6pm (1am on Feb 24 Singapore time).

Election officials said that by 2pm around 52 per cent of eligible voters had cast ballots in polling stations – compared to just 36.5 per cent by the same time in the 2021 election.

However, more people voted by post at the last polls due to the pandemic.

The high-stakes vote in the European Union’s biggest economy comes amid tectonic upheaval in US-Europe ties sparked by Mr Trump’s direct outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, excluding the EU from talks to end the Ukraine war.

Across Europe, Nato allies worry about the future of the alliance, nowhere more than in Germany, which grew prosperous under the US-led security umbrella.

Mr Merz, in his final CDU/Christian Social Union campaign event in Munich on Feb 22, said Europe needed to walk tall to be able to “sit at the main table” of the world powers.

Voicing strong confidence, the 69-year-old former investment lawyer told supporters in a large beer hall that “we will win the elections and then the nightmare of this government will be over”.

High stakes

In a strange twist to the polarised campaign, the AfD has basked in the glowing support lavished on it by Mr Trump’s entourage, with billionaire Elon Musk touting it as the only party to “save Germany”.

The AfD, strongest in the former communist east, is on track for its best result after Germany was shocked by a series of high-profile attacks in which the suspects were asylum seekers.

In December, a car ramming through a Christmas market crowd killed six people and wounded hundreds, with a Saudi man arrested at the scene.

More deadly attacks followed, both blamed on Afghan asylum seekers: a stabbing spree targeting kindergarten children and

another car-ramming attack in Munich.

On Feb 21, a

Syrian man who police said wanted to “kill Jews”

was arrested after a Spanish tourist was stabbed in the neck at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial.

“I am afraid that the AfD will become strong,” said Frankfurt voter Janine Wirmer, 32, a project manager, who was carrying a child in her arm at the voting booth. For her, the key issues “continue to be climate protection and, of course, Ukraine, especially now with regard to Trump and how the USA is suddenly behaving”.

Last chance

Amid the rise of the AfD, Mr Merz has argued that the next government must boldly address the concerns, warning that otherwise the far right might win next time round.

“The stakes could not be higher,” argued political analyst and author Michael Broening, who serves on the SPD’s Basic Values commission.

“Germany’s mainstream parties have consistently failed to convince voters to reject the far right, and this election could be their last chance to turn the tide,” he said.

Democratic forces must find solutions to economic stagnation, immigration challenges and voter disaffection, he said, adding that “if Germany’s ‘establishment’ parties fail to deliver this time, they may not be the establishment for much longer”.

For the next German leader, more threats loom from the US, long its bedrock ally, if Mr Trump sparks a trade war that could hammer Germany’s recession-hit economy. Mr Trump, asked about the election in Germany, which he has berated over its trade, migration and defence policies, said dismissively that “I wish them luck, we got our own problems”.

Mr Scholz will stay in charge as caretaker until a new multi-party government takes shape – a task which Mr Merz has said he hopes to achieve by Easter in two months. AFP