French PM set to survive no-confidence motion but fate hangs in the balance

PARIS - France’s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is set to survive a no-confidence vote this week, but his future still hangs by a thread after barely half a year in the post.

The centrist veteran was named premier by President Emmanuel Macron in December with a mission to bring stability following months of chaos in the wake of last summer’s legislative elections.

The snap polls, which took place over two rounds in June and July 2024, were called by the president in a bid to regain the political initiative, but his gamble backfired with the far-right of Ms Marine Le Pen emerging as the largest party and pro-Macron forces losing all control of parliament.

Were Mr Bayrou to be ejected by parliament in a vote of no confidence, it would leave Mr Macron seeking his seventh prime minister and cast a heavy shadow over the remaining two years of his presidential mandate.

There would also be pressure on Mr Macron to again call legislative elections, which he legally can soon do once a year has passed since the last polls.

Following the collapse of talks on pension reform, France’s Socialist Party (PS) has filed a motion of no confidence against Mr Bayrou’s government that is to be debated on July 1.

“We hope that Mr Francois Bayrou will no longer be Prime Minister and that there will be real change, that there will be someone at the Matignon who can talk to us,” PS leader Olivier Faure told LCI, referring to the premier’s office and residence in Paris.

‘Sooner than you think’

Mr Bayrou on June 29 dismissed the no-confidence motion as a “joke”, telling RTL the censure had only been put forward by the PS “to show that it is in the opposition”.

While the no-confidence motion has broad support across the left, it is set to fail as it will not receive the support of the National Rally (RN) under Ms Le Pen.

But her far-right party has not ruled out using its leverage in parliament to vote out Mr Bayrou, as it did with his predecessor Mr Michel Barnier, over the 2026 budget in the autumn.

Ms Le Pen on June 28 urged her troops to be ready for new legislative elections, saying it is “possible” Mr Macron may have his hand forced. The earliest the president can dissolve parliament is July 8.

“Dissolution is necessary as soon as possible,” RN vice-president Sebastien Chenu told Europe 1.

The government’s “turn will come” to lose a vote of no confidence and “probably sooner than you think”, he said.

Mr Bayrou accused his detractors of being irresponsible. “Everyone is threatening, but who is taking care of the country’s situation? What are the parties that are threatening a no-confidence vote doing to move the country forward?“

‘Fate rests with Ms Le Pen’

Ms Le Pen is also concerned with her own personal strategy, awaiting an appeals verdict on a fraud conviction that currently means she cannot stand in the 2027 presidential elections.

There are also reports of tensions between her and her 29-year-old protege Jordan Bardella, who would replace her on the ballot if she is disqualified.

Analysts at Eurasia Group risk analysis firm said that the situation has exposed the failure of the so-called “Bayrou method” under which the premier sought to ensure his survival by working with moderate left-wing forces and not relying on the far-right.

“The government won’t fall next week, but the withdrawal of the Socialists’ support now means Mr Bayrou’s fate rests with Ms Le Pen,” said the group, adding that its “60 per cent base case” was that the far-right would team up with the left to topple the government in September or October.

Mr Bayrou meanwhile hit back at what he described as “insinuations” he does not work hard enough. “Come and see if there are any aperitifs. Never! If there are any dinners that drag on. Never! That’s not how I live. I live frugally,” he told RTL. AFP