France faces more turmoil with government on brink ahead of confidence vote

PARIS – France’s fourth prime minister in less than two years, Mr Francois Bayrou, faces defeat in a confidence vote on Sept 8, tipping the euro zone’s second-biggest economy further into political and economic paralysis.

The minority government’s expected collapse looks set to deepen France’s problems at a critical time for Europe, which is seeking unity in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, an increasingly dominant China and trade tensions with the US. 

The turmoil also threatens France’s ability to rein in its debt, with the risk of further credit downgrades looming as bond spreads – a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt – widen.

France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with 2024’s deficit nearly double the European Union’s 3 per cent limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9 per cent of gross domestic product. 

The confidence vote is slated for the afternoon of Sept 8 after a debate that starts from 3pm (9pm Singapore time) with an opening speech by Mr Bayrou, followed by leaders from all political groups. The outcome of the vote could come by around 7pm.

Opposition leaders across the political spectrum made clear that they would vote to oust Mr Bayrou.

“I want to tell you how happy I am that the government will fall today. For many French, it’s a relief,” Mr Manuel Bompard, from the hard-left France Unbowed, told broadcaster franceinfo, echoing similar comments from other parties.

Should Mr Bayrou fall, President Emmanuel Macron will likely face the task of finding yet another government chief capable of steering a budget through Parliament, less than a year after the ouster of Mr Bayrou’s conservative predecessor, Mr Michel Barnier.

Social tensions are also heating up. A number of nebulous groups that have mushroomed online have called on the French to “block everything” on Sept 10, while the mainstream labour unions are planning social action on Sept 18 against plans for budget cuts.

Tilt to the left? 

Mr Macron has so far ruled out dissolving Parliament, as he did in 2024.

France has been mired in a political crisis since Mr Macron called the 2024 snap election, which resulted in an even more divided Parliament.

His own alliance, already shorn of a majority since 2022, saw its numbers fall further, while the anti-immigration, far-right National Rally emerged as the biggest party. A loose coalition of left-wing parties, now deeply divided, came in as the largest bloc.

No camp has a majority. 

Ms Marine Le Pen, head of the National Rally’s group of lawmakers, said on Sept 7: “This crisis was provoked and fuelled by President Emmanuel Macron and all those who have served him. Today, the sick man of Europe, because of them, is France.” 

After the fall of a conservative and a centrist as prime minister, most observers expect Mr Macron to next look for a candidate from the ranks of the centre-left Socialists. 

Any such candidate would still need to forge a delicate alliance with the President’s liberal bloc, which opposes many of the left’s ideas, including raising taxes for the wealthiest to plug the country’s financial holes.

They would also have to convince the moderate right to tolerate yet another minority government. 

Mr Laurent Wauquiez, leading lawmaker for the conservative Les Republicains party, signalled that he would not call for ousting a socialist prime minister. 

Party chief and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, however, disagreed. “There is no way we will accept a socialist prime minister,” he said in a speech on Sept 7.

Like many in France, Mr Mohamed, 80, who sells produce at the Aligre market in Paris, does not think the politicians will find a way out. 

“Come back in 10 days and you’ll see nothing will have changed. There won’t be a majority, there will be no budget.” REUTERS