Fitch downgrade casts shadow over new French prime minister’s budget battles

PARIS – Fitch’s downgrade of France’s credit rating has cast a pall over newly installed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu as he begins talks to draft a budget, while unions prepare strikes over spending cuts and employers threaten protests against tax hikes.

Citing political instability and rising debt, Fitch cut its rating on Sept 12 to A+ from AA-, giving France its lowest credit score on record just days after President Emmanuel Macron tapped Mr Lecornu to be his fifth prime minister in two years.

Although analysts said it was largely expected, the timing could hardly be worse.

Fitch’s downgrade fires the starting gun on a complex sprint to present a first draft of the 2026 budget to Parliament by Oct 7, with a possible extension until Oct 13. 

Mr Lecornu faces a near-impossible task to make the cuts demanded by investors growing impatient with France’s spending, while also winning over three ideologically distinct parliamentary blocs with differing views on how to cut the budget.

He also faces pressure from the streets. Unions have called for nationwide strikes on Sept 18 to protest against Mr Lecornu’s plans to reduce the budget deficit – the euro zone’s biggest at 5.4 per cent of output in 2025.  

On Sept 13, in his first interviews since taking office, Mr Lecornu said he would scrap his predecessor’s unpopular plans to eliminate two public holidays and said he was open to discussing higher taxes on the wealthy.

The Socialists are demanding a wealth tax on the ultra-rich as a condition for not voting to topple his government.

Mr Patrick Martin, head of the Medef employers federation, said on Sept 13 the group would mobilise in mass against any such project.

A major tax hike could also alienate the conservative Republicans, whose leader, outgoing Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, said the Socialists’ demands would “only make matters worse” in already high-tax France.

With France’s borrowing costs rising over concerns about its ability to control its deficit, the budget would have to put public finances on a “healthy trajectory”, Mr Lecornu said.

“The future budget may not fully reflect my convictions... In fact, that’s almost certain”, he added, urging “frank and high-level parliamentary discussions” with the Socialists, Greens and Communists.

Mr Lecornu gave few indications of his budget priorities, other than saying he wanted to give local governments more power and cut down on the layers of bureaucracy. 

Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen renewed pressure on Mr Macron to call new parliamentary elections – an idea he has rejected so far. Party leader Jordan Bardella said Mr Lecornu must show a clear break with past policies or face a vote against his government. REUTERS