Analysis: Win for far right in state election shakes Germany’s fragile coalition

BERLIN – German state elections that dealt a heavy blow to the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government and historic wins for two anti-establishment parties are likely to aggravate instability in an already fractious ruling coalition.

With only a year to go before a national election in Europe’s largest economy, the Sept 1 results look set to increase the pressure on Mr Scholz to be tougher on immigration and intensify the debate over support for Ukraine – issues that dominated campaigning.

The German government’s faltering authority could also complicate European policy at a time when the bloc’s other major power, neighbouring France, is still struggling to form a government after snap elections in June and July.

All three parties in the federal government looked to have lost votes in the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, according to early projections, which underscored the demise of Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) as a big-tent party. The projections by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen published at 9pm (3am on Sept 2, Singapore time) put it on just 6 per cent to 7.6 per cent of the vote.

Junior coalition partners, the Greens and pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), were at risk of being evicted from the Thuringia state Parliament for failing to meet the 5 per cent threshold.

Analysts said the most likely impact of the results would be increased bickering within Mr Scholz’s ideologically heterogeneous coalition.

“For us, it’s going to be about asserting ourselves more strongly,” Mr Kevin Kuehnert, SPD general secretary, said late on Sept 1. “Not letting ourselves be led by the nose by parties that have just been kicked out of a state Parliament.”

The results reflect the growing fragmentation of the political landscape and rise of anti-establishment parties across Europe as governments have struggled to deal with crises including the Ukraine war and inflation.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was the big winner of the evening, securing 33.2 per cent in Thuringia in its first regional election, and also gaining almost as many votes as the conservatives in Saxony.

Meanwhile, the leftist populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), won more votes than all three parties in Mr Scholz’s coalition, gathering 11.5 per cent to 15.6 per cent of the vote just eight months after its founding.

The strength of these anti-Nato, anti-immigration and Russia-friendly parties will make forming ideologically coherent coalitions ever harder at both state and federal levels.

Reduced support for Ukraine?

The coalition partners, in government since 2021, were at odds even before the elections, as tensions had erupted in late 2023 over the budget for 2024 and 2025.

Their union was originally billed as a coalition of progress, but Greens co-leader Omid Nouripour in August called it a “transitional government”, bemoaning the “many, many superfluous disputes” as well as fundamental ideological differences in particular with the FDP.

FDP deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki said on Sept 1 that the election results showed that the coalition had “lost its legitimacy” and was harming his party, which must have consequences.

“With the 2025 budget bill still featuring a gap of some €12 billion (S$17.3 billion), renewed coalition tensions are likely,” said Mr Carsten Nickel at advisory firm Teneo in a research note.

Yet Mr Scholz’s coalition is unlikely to disband altogether as it is not in the interests of the three parties, which are all polling below their 2021 results, said Professor Stefan Marschall, a political scientist at the University of Duesseldorf.

Both the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and AfD have eroded their support, which has led mainstream parties to toughen their stance on migration and could undermine support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

“The issue will become more fraught, and Germany will likely become more paralysed, meaning others like Poland, France and Italy will need to set the pace,” said Dr Alexander Clarkson at King’s College London.

The creation of the BSW and its legitimisation in this vote could prove particularly damaging for the SPD, which has already lost more than a third of its supporters since 2021 to poll around 16 per cent, and could see more left-leaning voters drawn away.

Tricky coalition building

The votes will likely also foment a debate about the knock-on effect of uneasy coalitions.

With the AfD unable to form a majority, it will be up to the runner-up, the conservatives – but in Thuringia, they will be unable to form a majority without support from the BSW, despite major ideological differences.

This is likely to have an impact in the Bundesrat, or Upper House of Parliament, too, said Prof Marschall, where state governments are represented, affecting national policymaking.

Meanwhile, coalitions with either the BSW or AfD at the federal level are unthinkable given their foreign policy views. This means the stronger they get, the more the mainstream parties will struggle to form coherent governing majorities, said Professor Andre Brodocz, a political scientist at Erfurt University.

But voters could punish mainstream parties for their incoherent coalitions by voting even more for anti-establishment parties in subsequent elections, say analysts.

“If there is no political implementation, no real changes, no reforms, voters can say the political process has been hijacked by the elites,” said political scientist Oliver Lembcke at the University of Bochum. “It’s a vicious circle.” REUTERS