Explainer: Why Russia’s airspace violations are pressuring Nato to respond
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Nato countries have struggled to detect even single drones entering their airspace, while Ukraine has been shooting down hundreds of them in the space of a day.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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Since Russian aircraft violated the airspace of three North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) member countries in rapid succession, the military alliance has been deliberating how to respond.
Poland’s air force shot down Russian drones
A Russian drone flew over Romanian territory on Sept 13.
And on Sept 19, MiG-31 fighter planes were escorted out of Estonia
Russia has typically denied airspace violations, and dismissed the drone overflights as accidental.
Some European officials see the incidents as a deliberate ploy by Russian President Vladimir Putin to test the collective resolve of Nato allies to defend one another from attack.
US President Donald Trump said on Sept 23 that Nato nations should shoot down Russian aircraft that enter their airspace.
But whether the US would lend its support would depend on the circumstances, he said.
In the meantime, the allies have been sending mixed messages about how they should deal with such incidents.
How unusual are these latest incursions?
Russian military aircraft such as helicopters and transport planes have occasionally veered into the airspace of Nato member states over the years.
Military experts see the incursions as a symbolic show of disregard for Nato borders, and, in the case of former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, a signal that Moscow doesn’t consider them to be independent nations.
Such incidents have become more common since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and have happened over a wider area.
Russian aircraft had not violated Norway’s airspace for a decade until this year, when three such incidents have occurred, according to the country’s government.
Russian drones have flown beyond Ukraine into other countries on several occasions. The September incursions stood out in terms their scale and the fact that they occurred in rapid succession.
The one in Poland involved around 20 Russian attack drones, and Nato took the unprecedented step of shooting some of them down.
The breach of Estonian airspace was unusually overt, with multiple Russian aircraft flying to within minutes of the capital Tallinn and involving fighter jets rather than the aging military transport planes more commonly observed in such incidents.
How do these incursions serve Russian interests?
They could be designed as a show of strength at a time when the Kremlin is struggling to achieve its war aims in Ukraine, and as a warning to Western nations not to get involved more directly in the conflict.
Moscow may also be probing for weaknesses in Nato’s defences.
The alliance is still coming to terms with the phenomenon of low-altitude warfare involving barrages of drones.
Nato countries have struggled to detect even single drones entering their airspace, while Ukraine has been shooting down hundreds
The overflights can spread fear, and send a warning to voters in democratic countries affected by the incursions to take a more neutral stance toward Russia.
This might eventually deepen divisions among Nato and European Union member states, and blunt their collective response to the war in Ukraine.
The incursions may also be a way for Moscow to test Nato Article 5 – the assurance that alliance members will rush to help if one of them comes under attack.
Mr Trump became the first US leader to call that principle into question
How did Nato react to the latest incursions?
Nato issued a statement on Sept 23 promising a “robust” response to the Russian incursions, saying it would use all options, including military ones, to defend itself.
Poland invoked Nato’s Article 4 after its drone incident, triggering an emergency meeting of alliance ambassadors.
They launched a military operation known as Eastern Sentry aimed at boosting Nato’s capacity to deal with military threats by Russia, including intercepting Russian drones.
Nato countries are also planning a “drone wall,” deploying new technologies to more effectively monitor low-altitude drones.
Among other options being considered are continuous air patrols of affected areas and further moves to bolster Nato’s broad presence in eastern Europe.
Officials pointed to Baltic Sentry, another Nato mission, as a successful model.
Nato bulked up its aerial and naval patrols in the Baltic Sea region after undersea gas, electricity and communication links were repeatedly damaged there.
However, members of the alliance have differed on the best approach to future Russian incursions.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country was prepared to down foreign aircraft that enter its territory.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back, saying Nato policy was to intercept foreign aircraft that aren’t attacking rather than fire at them.
Germany warned against the risks of shooting down Russian aircraft, while Mr Trump showed he’s open to a more aggressive stance.
Why are the incursions a challenge for Nato?
Nuclear-armed Russia has long complained about Nato’s expansion into Eastern Europe following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Among the countries seen as facing the greatest threat are the three Baltic nations.
They have only small professional militaries and have relied on aircraft operated by Nato allies to patrol their skies since 2004.
This increases the risk that the alliance would quickly become involved in any sort of conflict with Russia.
Mr Trump pledged his backing for Nato Article 5 in June after European alliance partners agreed to shoulder more of the cost of their defence.
Yet it’s still not clear if he’ll maintain historic levels of US military involvement in the region.
His defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has said the US is no longer the primary guarantor of security in Europe.
The changing nature of warfare presents a further challenge.
European air defence systems have struggled to deal with the kind of drones that Russia is manufacturing by the thousands, which are often too small and low-flying to be detected by radar.
The risk for Nato if Russia keeps ratcheting up the scale and frequency of its incursions is that the alliance depletes its limited stocks of expensive, sophisticated missiles shooting down cheap and expendable drones, harming its ability to fend off a more powerful and targeted attack.
What considerations will guide Nato’s response?
Ever since drones began encroaching into Nato territory, the alliance has debated the risks to safety if it shoots them down over populated areas, and the possible reaction it could provoke from Russia.
That debate was seemingly put to an end when four drones were shot down in Polish skies.
Firing on piloted fighter jets is another matter, however.
Nato was established as a defensive alliance whose aim is to dissuade hostile actors from taking aggressive action, and its officials have indicated the planes that overflew Estonia did not pose enough of an immediate threat to justify opening fire.
It can be difficult and cumbersome to establish and prove whether an airspace violation was intentional and if so, what the exact intention was. And it’s important to Western countries to have proof in order to respond.
Russian defence officials know that the issue of attribution is a thorny one for Western governments.
If Nato shot down a piloted Russian aircraft, it would likely be portrayed by Moscow as an unprovoked act of war and a dangerous escalation.
Yet too much restraint may be taken by Mr Putin as proof that Nato members are watering down their commitment to Article 5.
Without some clear show of strength, he may conclude that Nato considers some of its members more deserving of protection than others.
Some Nato officials also see the risk of a potential Russian miscalculation the longer Moscow’s incursions continue.
For instance, a Russian drone could hit an apartment building in Romania or Poland, causing the deaths of civilians.
This might lead to retaliatory action and an aggressive Russian response, causing the conflict in Ukraine to spill into the wider region. BLOOMBERG
