Exit poll suggests centrists win Dutch vote, beating far right

THE HAGUE - Dutch voters appeared to have rejected far-right leader Geert Wilders in favour of a centrist party, an exit poll suggested on Oct 29, after a snap election closely watched in Europe where extremists are gaining ground.

The centrist Democrats 66 party, known as D66, led by Mr Rob Jetten was projected to win 27 seats out of 150 in Parliament, ahead of Mr Wilders and his far-right PVV Freedom Party with 25 seats, according to the Ipsos poll.

If confirmed, the result would put Mr Jetten, 38, in pole position to become the country’s

youngest and first openly gay prime minister

, subject to coalition talks.

D66 supporters exploded with joy at their election party in Leiden, waving Dutch and European flags. “We’ve done it,” said a jubilant Mr Jetten.

“This is an historic election result because we’ve shown not only to the Netherlands, but also to the world that it is possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements,” he told reporters.

Exit polls in the Netherlands are generally accurate, but the seats could change as actual votes are counted, and the margin of error is two seats.

The centre-right liberal VVD party was predicted to win 23 seats, with the left-wing Green/Labour bloc expected to gain 20.

With far-right parties topping the polls in Britain, France and Germany, the Dutch election was seen as a bellwether of the strength of the far right in Europe.

If the exit poll results are confirmed, the PVV lost 12 seats compared with its stunning 2023 election win.

“The Dutch election really mirrors trends across Western Europe,” Leiden University professor of Dutch politics Sarah de Lange told AFP before the exit poll.

Even before the vote, Mr Wilders was virtually certain not to be prime minister, as all other parties had ruled out joining a coalition with him.

The 62-year-old firebrand, sometimes known as the “Dutch Trump”, had collapsed the previous government, complaining progress was too slow to achieve “the strictest asylum policy ever”.

“The voter has spoken. We had hoped for a different outcome but we stuck to our guns,” said Mr Wilders on social media platform X.

When the result is finalised, there will be a prolonged period of haggling between the parties to see who wants to work with whom, a process that could take months.

The fragmented Dutch political system means no party can reach the 76 seats needed to govern alone, so consensus and coalition-building are essential.

Professor De Lange told AFP: “It will certainly take time for the Netherlands to reach stability and a new coalition.

“The parties... are ideologically very, very diverse, which will make compromising very challenging.”

‘Heart of Europe’

Millions of Dutch people cast their votes in a variety of locations including zoos, football stadiums and windmills.

They had a bewildering range of 27 parties to choose from, meaning each voter had to grapple with a huge A3 sheet of paper listing the candidates.

The main issues have been immigration and a housing crisis that especially affects young people in the densely populated country.

But the other party leaders also ran on a pledge to return stability to the Dutch political scene after two years of chaos since Mr Wilders won the most seats in 2023.

Mr Jetten shot up the polls in the final days of the campaign, thanks to the fresh-faced 38-year-old’s strong media performances.

“I want to bring the Netherlands back to the heart of Europe because without European cooperation, we are nowhere,” he told AFP after casting his vote in The Hague.

Mr Frans Timmermans, an experienced former European Commission vice-president, touted himself as a safe pair of hands with strong environmental credentials.

“This is one of the richest countries on the planet, and still, self-confidence is very low,” Mr Timmermans, who heads the Green/Labour left-wing alliance, told AFP in a pre-election interview.

“We need to bring that back because there’s no issue that we can’t solve,” said Mr Timmermans, 64, a former foreign minister who speaks six languages.

‘Not that aggressive’

Violence and disinformation marred the campaign in the European Union’s fifth-largest economy and major global exporter.

Demonstrators against shelters for asylum seekers clashed with police in several cities, and violence erupted at an anti-immigration protest in The Hague in September.

Mr Wilders was forced to apologise to Mr Timmermans after two party members created artificial intelligence-generated images to discredit the leftist leader.

Until a new government is formed, outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof will run the country – reluctantly. “I wouldn’t wish it on you,” he told one MP in Parliament.

“If you accept this job, you know that it will end some day,” Mr Schoof told AFP after casting his vote.

Voters appeared to yearn for a return to less polarising politics.

“I think society should be more positive and less negative,” Mr Bart Paalman, a 53-year-old baker, told AFP, as he cast his vote at the Anne Frank House, which had been converted into a polling station for election day.

“I’m voting for a party who’s not that aggressive.” AFP