Europe told to slash emissions by up to 95%

BRUSSELS – The European Union (EU) should reduce greenhouse gases by as much as 95 per cent by 2040 to achieve its objective of reaching climate neutrality 10 years later, according to the bloc’s advisers. 

Earlier in 2023, the 27-nation EU started a debate on setting an intermediate emissions target for the next decade, in an overhaul that will require radically greener consumer lifestyles and more effort from businesses. The recommendation by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change points to a much steeper path to net-zero emissions than a trajectory floated by the European Commission.

“The advisory board’s recommendations underscore the need for bold and transformative actions to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 in a way that is both fair and feasible,” said Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, who chairs the 15-member board of independent scientific experts. “To do this, the EU should reduce emissions by 90 per cent to 95 per cent by 2040, relative to 1990 levels.”

The report comes at a time when governments and businesses across the region are increasingly baulking at the ambitious pace of the EU’s green push as they confront the massive costs associated with economic transformation. Two years after the EU agreed to toughen its 2030 emissions-reduction target to 55 per cent from 40 per cent, it is finalising a massive package of measures to meet the new goal.

The drive to make the continent climate-neutral has coincided with

emergency rules to mitigate the effects of an energy crisis

and increasing competition from the United States and China. This has put pressure on governments and companies, sparking calls from French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders for a slower pace. 

The goal put forward by the climate advisory board would be compatible with its recommendation to keep the EU cumulative emissions for 2030-2050 within a limit of 11 to 14 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. That is the effort needed to limit global warming to 1.5 deg C.

While policymakers will have to make choices on what strategies to pursue, reaching the targets would imply almost complete decarbonisation of the EU’s power sector by 2040, including a phase-out of electricity generated from coal by 2030 and large-scale deployment of wind, solar and hydro energy, according to the report. Energy consumption would fall considerably, partly because of the electrification of transport. Additionally, all scenarios analysed by the board require a rapid scale-up of carbon removal.

The report will be discussed by the European Parliament’s environment committee later on Thursday. The European Commission, the bloc’s regulatory arm, indicated in public consultations earlier in 2023 that an emissions cut of 75 per cent to 80 per cent by 2040 would follow the average trajectory between 2030 and climate neutrality in 2050. Lowering pollution by more than 90 per cent would signify “a very high ambition, close to reaching climate neutrality already in 2040”, it said in March. 

The commission, whose current term ends in 2024, plans to present in the first quarter of 2024 a climate road map for the next decade. A legislative proposal would be put forward only when new leadership takes office. BLOOMBERG