EU officials dismiss fears elections in Germany, France could derail Ukraine support
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A civilian hospital in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Sept 25, following a Russian air strike. EU officials say the bloc is resilient enough to weather political shifts in member states.
PHOTO: EPA
- EU officials downplay fears that election wins by Ukraine-sceptic parties in France and Germany could reduce support for Kyiv, emphasising EU resilience and continued backing despite political shifts.
- French National Rally leader Marine Le Pen signals reduced financial aid but continued military support for Ukraine, while Germany's far-right AfD opposes current aid levels and seeks renewed ties with Russia.
- Support for Ukraine is expected to remain strong from NATO's eastern flank and Nordic countries, with officials confident Ukraine is better positioned politically and militarily than before despite challenges ahead.
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NEW YORK – Senior European officials sought to play down fears that potential election victories by Ukraine-sceptic parties in France and Germany could undermine support for Kyiv, arguing that the European Union remains resilient enough to weather shifts in member states.
Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, officials acknowledged risks posed by shifting electoral tides but said support for Kyiv would endure, as Ukraine heads into a difficult winter facing military and funding shortfalls.
“We are following the political developments in Europe,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said, acknowledging that elections were one of the factors shaping calculations about future support.
He said backing for Ukraine would endure even if some countries became less committed: “If someone additionally will fall from those strong supporters of Ukraine, others will stand because this is in our interest.”
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said concerns about elections should not distract Europe from Ukraine’s immediate needs. “The main thing is not only about elections, it’s about Ukraine,” he said.
On his visit to Kyiv in August, he said, Ukrainian officials were increasingly worried about winter, particularly over shortages of air defence capabilities and funding needed to expand long-range strike programmes.
“President (Volodymyr) Zelensky has said to us as well that, please let’s push all different political frames to have real deliveries for this time because this can be the darkest hour for Ukraine,” Tsahkna said. “So it is not our luxury to think about what kind of elections we have next year.”
Le Pen offers nuance, AFD stirs fears
In France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen said on Sept 24 that if elected president, she would continue training Ukrainian troops, supplying military equipment and supporting the so-called Coalition of the Willing.
But she said the era of blank cheques for Kyiv would be over.
“We can no longer provide financial support to Ukraine. We regret this, but we simply no longer have the means to do so,” she said.
The position marks a shift by the National Rally away from its past affinity with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggests that, in practice, a Le Pen presidency might produce less change in French policy towards Ukraine than many allies once feared.
France has been one of Ukraine’s strongest political backers, but its bilateral financial assistance in 2026 has amounted to only a few hundred million euros, well below the contributions of some other major European allies.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won two regional elections in eastern Germany earlier in September and leads national opinion polls.
The party has criticised Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s support for Ukraine, estimated at more than €12 billion (S$17.4 billion) in 2026, as costly and unnecessarily provocative towards Moscow, while making the restoration of energy ties with Russia a central policy goal.
“The nationalist forces in France seem to have understood something... so that’s a plus side,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told Reuters.
“But in Germany, we have a pro-Russian far right that seems to be reviving German nationalism, which we’re concerned about.”
Several officials said past political shocks had failed to trigger the policy reversals many had feared.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said voters across Europe had backed parties in the past that were expected to weaken support for Kyiv, only for those fears to be overblown.
“In democracy, you always live with a pendulum, you know, swinging from left to the right, sometimes to the extremes,” he said in an interview.
“People were afraid when (Italian Prime Minister) Giorgia Meloni was elected that this would have ramifications on Ukraine or Europe, (but) it’s only really had positive ramifications, especially on Ukraine.”
Support from NATO’s eastern flank
Stubb said countries on NATO’s eastern flank would remain the backbone of support for Ukraine, even if enthusiasm waned elsewhere. “What you’ll probably end up seeing is the flank states continuing their support, so the ones that are close to Russia and close to Ukraine, and then a certain distance being taken from elsewhere.”
But any shift would be one of degree rather than a fundamental change, he said.
“Ukraine is not going to stand and fall based on this risk,” Stubb said. “I feel that Ukraine is in a better place politically, militarily and financially than at any time during this war.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha struck a similar note, saying Kyiv was closely watching election cycles across Europe but remained confident about long-term support.
“Of course there are some risks,” he said, warning against turning Ukraine into a domestic political battleground. “But I believe in European wisdom.” REUTERS