EU must reform or risk irrelevance, says report
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Former British prime minister Tony Blair (left) and JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon said Europe needed to integrate further to prioritise defence and economic growth.
PHOTOS: REUTERS
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LONDON – The European Union must reform or risk becoming irrelevant as the rivalry between China and the US
Based on conversations with government, business and civil leaders, the report set out how a convergence of structural shifts is reshaping nations, markets and institutions, threatening those countries and groupings that once relied on the US for security while growing trade ties with China.
Mr Blair, Britain’s prime minister from 1997 to 2007, and Mr Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said Europe needed to integrate further to prioritise defence and economic growth.
“If it cannot stand on its own against Russia, it will be even less able to manage systemic competition with the US or China,” their report said.
“Reform is not optional; it is required to remain relevant.”
Taking responsibility for own security
The blunt summary comes as the EU hosts a summit to discuss funding for Ukraine and how it can respond to the “changed landscape for rules-based economic relations”, and as US President Donald Trump heaps pressure on the bloc, including with a new National Security Strategy.
The head of the EU Commission, Ms Ursula von der Leyen, has said that Europe must reform and be responsible for its own security.
Supporters of the bloc would note that while Europe’s share of global gross domestic product is declining, the US is on the same path.
The report also set out the challenge posed to middle powers such as India and the Gulf states from the new dynamic, as part of a broad overview of how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and political populism were upending the world order.
New world order like a 3D chessboard
Mr Alexander George, an author of the World Rewired: Navigating A Multi-Speed, Multipolar Order report, said people had previously been able to look to moments in history for guidance.
“We’re really living in a new world which has never actually existed before,” he said. “It’s like this 3D chessboard.”
The report said the US retained enduring power but faced its greatest threats at home where political volatility makes it harder to tackle high debt, while China’s trajectory will hinge on whether it can maintain growth despite demographic and debt constraints.
On middle powers, it said the steep US tariffs on India in retaliation for its purchase of Russian oil showed the limitations to a multi-alignment approach, while the United Arab Emirates’ move to strengthen US technology ties showed that countries were having to choose between the US and China on tech.
The report was produced by Mr Dimon’s JPMorgan Chase, which has launched a US$1.5 trillion (S$1.94 trillion) decade-long plan to support industries deemed vital to US economic security and resilience, and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Mr Blair is the chair of JPMorgan’s international council, which advises the firm on strategy and geopolitics. REUTERS
