England could face 75,000 virus deaths this winter: Study

LONDON • The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has the potential to cause a wave of infections in England and fuel almost 75,000 deaths this winter if the government does not impose additional precautionary control measures, according to a research report by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).

Under the British government's Plan B rules imposed last week in response to Omicron, the most optimistic scenario for England indicates about 175,000 hospital admissions and 24,700 deaths for the five-month period from December to April.

The worst-case projection is for 74,800 deaths. That is more than half the 127,154 fatalities registered in England since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

England accounts for more than two-thirds of almost 172,000 deaths in all of the United Kingdom, which includes Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The research is not yet peer-reviewed, LSHTM said on its website.

"The team used the latest experimental data on the antibody-evading characteristics of the Omicron variant to explore plausible scenarios for the immune escape of Omicron," LSHTM said.

The report recommended restrictions on indoor hospitality, gathering sizes and closing some entertainment venues that could lower the projected hospitalisations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600.

The government's Plan B encourages people to work from home and requires mask wearing on public transport and when visiting retail businesses. Bars and restaurants are exempt from the mask rules, while nightclubs and other large venues will be required to check patrons' vaccination status.

"Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough," said Dr Rosanna Barnard from LSHTM's Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases.

Britain reported more than 58,000 new Covid-19 infections on Friday, marking the highest level since January.

Before Omicron was detected in Britain two weeks ago, the Delta variant was driving a surge in infections, despite the country having one of the most successful vaccination programmes in the world.

More than 80 per cent of the adult population has had two shots and the government imposed the Plan B rules to try to buy time to speed up its booster programme. Nearly 40 per cent of adults have received a third shot.

Meanwhile, health officials have advised ministers that "stringent national measures" should be taken by Dec 18 to avoid hospitalisations surpassing last winter's peak. Further measures, referred to as Plan C, could include stricter isolation rules for people exposed to Covid-19 and further limits on visitors to care homes and hospitals, mask-wearing in pubs as well as a hospitality shutdown.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government may be considering more measures, but is already facing growing opposition from Conservative lawmakers to further restrictions, especially during the holiday period.

"We absolutely need to keep everything under review," Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said on Friday after an emergency meeting with leaders of the devolved UK nations. He said the meeting was presented with some very challenging new information and the country is facing a "deeply concerning situation".

BLOOMBERG