Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders scores shock election victory

AMSTERDAM - Far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders has won the Dutch elections and said he plans to lead the country’s next government, in a shock result that will resound across Europe.

Front runner Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius of the VVD conceded defeat after a late surge in the final days of the campaign catapulted Mr Wilders’ anti-EU party past his mainstream rivals.

Mr Wilders’ Freedom Party won 37 seats according to a preliminary count, more than doubling his representation from the previous Parliament and giving him 12 more than his closest rival. 

Only once in recent Dutch history has the leader of the biggest party not become prime minister.

Market reaction in the wake of the results on Nov 23 was muted, as traders took stock of the fact that coalition arrangements may take a long time to negotiate. 

Mr Wilders’ victory presents a challenge to the European Union project in one of the bloc’s six founding members, as the world braces itself for the potential return of Donald Trump after the 2024 US presidential election.

Mr Wilders has promised voters a binding referendum on leaving the EU and railed against a range of the bloc’s policies on issues like climate change and immigration.

“The hope of the Dutch people is that they will get their country back,” Mr Wilders said after an exit poll published by state broadcaster NOS.

Mr Wilders’ prospects of leading the next government will hinge on his ability to forge alliances with rivals more to the centre. 

In his post-election speech, Mr Wilders called for a coalition that would include the VVD, until recently helmed by outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte.

The VVD has indicated it might be prepared to govern alongside Mr Wilders.

“I am willing to compromise in talks with other parties,” he said.

The AEX index of the 25 largest stocks listed on the Euronext Amsterdam changed little in morning trading. Chip gear maker ASML Holding NV slipped 1 per cent while ING Groep NV was down 1.2 per cent at 11am in Amsterdam. Dutch bonds were underperforming German peers by one basis point. 

“We will be in for months of intense negotiations and it’s very hard to predict how this will exactly pan out,” said Mr Peter van der Welle, a multi-asset strategist at Robeco. 

A surge in the number of refugees since the

Russian invasion of Ukraine,

and the spiralling cost of food and energy have fuelled support for far-right groups across the European continent.

Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland now has more support than any of the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition.

In Italy, Ms Giorgia Meloni came from nowhere to take power in 2022.

The Dutch election campaign highlighted how immigration has polarised voter opinions and driven support towards Mr Wilders, for whom the topic has been a core issue for decades.

The 60-year-old

is known for his anti-Islamic views

and has lived under police protection since 2004 on account of death threats.

The Left alliance, formed from the Green Left and Labour parties and led by former EU Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans, scored 25 seats, becoming the second-strongest party before Mr Rutte’s VVD. A new party formed by lawmaker Pieter Omtzigt will get 20 seats, according to the preliminary result. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently been at odds with Brussels himself, was quick to congratulate Mr Wilders on his victory.

The outspoken Brussels critic held a phone call with Mr Wilders on the night of Nov 22, wishing him “success and perseverance for the upcoming political negotiations”, spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said in a post on X. 

Mr Wilders and his team hugged and cheered as the result was announced, and sang along to the Rocky theme tune Eye Of The Tiger. Reporters who watched his campaign team celebrate at a crowded bar in Scheveningen near The Hague did so from behind security glass. 

“It is customary that the biggest and winning party takes the lead in the formation process,” said Groningen University’s associate professor of political science Stefan Couperus. “He could become the leader of the new government.”

Mr Wilders benefited from a strong showing in the campaign’s final election debates – and from the refusal of Mr Rutte’s successor as party leader Yesilgoz-Zegerius to rule out working with him.

The VVD leader, whose party scored 24 seats, signalled before the election that she might go into coalition with Mr Wilders, although after the exit polls dropped, she cast doubt on whether her rival would be able to secure the votes he needs to govern. 

“I don’t see that happening because Mr Wilders can’t form a majority,” she said. “However, the ball is now in Geert Wilders’ court.”

One cautionary precedent for Mr Wilders came in Spain in November, when Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez clinched a surprise third term despite suffering defeat to his centre-right rival in July’s election.

Mr Sanchez stitched together support from seven different parties to turn the electoral maths in his favour after the two right-wing parties fell short of a majority. 

If Mr Wilders ends up leading the next Dutch government, it would usher a eurosceptic into the heart of one of the union’s stalwart members. He has called for the Netherlands to withdraw from its international climate obligations, and demanded a halt to aid to Ukraine. 

Under Mr Rutte, the Netherlands pledged to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in 2024 and has been leading the European effort to train Ukrainian pilots.

Despite campaign pledges on banning the Quran and shutting down mosques, “Geert Wilders conveyed a more moderate message than in previous years”, said Prof Couperus. “That seems to have worked electorally.” 

Mr Wilders has been a Member of Parliament for 25 years but only once taken part in government – between 2010 and 2012 – when he had an arrangement to support Mr Rutte’s first, minority coalition from outside.

Mr Rutte subsequently ruled out working with him after Mr Wilders made comments insulting people of Moroccan descent, for which he was censured by the courts.

It is likely that the outgoing caretaker government led by Mr Rutte could preside for a while, especially if Mr Wilders’ strong showing complicates the coalition-building process.

At the last election, four parties were needed to broker a majority government and the negotiations took a record nine months. 

“The PVV cannot be ignored, and wants to work together with other parties, and that means that we and they have to step over their shadow,” Mr Wilders said. BLOOMBERG