Climate tipping points are being crossed, scientists warn ahead of COP30
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Scientists have been surprised by how quickly changes are unfolding in nature.
PHOTO: AFP
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COPENHAGEN - Global warming is crossing dangerous thresholds sooner than expected, with the world’s coral reefs now in an almost irreversible die-off, marking what scientists on Oct 13 described as the first “tipping point” in climate-driven ecosystem collapse.
The warning in the Global Tipping Points report by 160 researchers worldwide, which synthesises ground-breaking science to estimate points of no return, comes just weeks ahead of 2025’s COP30 climate summit which will be held at the edge of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil.
That same rainforest system is now at risk of collapsing once the average global temperature warms beyond just 1.5 deg C based on deforestation rates, the report said, revising down the estimated threshold for the Amazon.
Also of concern if temperatures keep rising is the threat of disruption to the major ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or Amoc, which helps to ensure mild winters in northern Europe.
“Change is happening fast now, tragically, in parts of the climate, the biosphere,” said environmental scientist Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, who is the lead author of the report.
Professor Lenton noted positive signs when it came to phasing out the fossil fuels most responsible for climate change.
Renewables, for example, accounted for more electricity generation than coal in 2025 for the first time, according to data from the non-profit think-tank Ember.
“Nobody wants to be just traumatised and disempowered,” Prof Lenton said. “We still have some agency.”
The scientists implored countries at November’s COP30 to work towards bringing down climate-warming carbon emissions.
Scientists have been surprised by how quickly changes are unfolding in nature, with average global temperatures already having warmed by 1.3 deg C to 1.4 deg C above the pre-industrial average, according to data from science agencies in the United Nations and European Union.
Warmest on record
The last two years were the earth’s warmest on record, with marine heatwaves that stressed 84 per cent of the world’s reefs to the point of bleaching and, in some cases, death.
Coral reefs sustain about a quarter of marine life.
For corals to recover, the world would need to drastically ramp up climate action to reverse temperatures back down to just 1 deg C above the pre-industrial average, the scientists suggested.
“The new report makes clear that each year, there is an increase in the scope and magnitude of the negative impacts of climate change,” said Dr Pep Canadell, a senior scientist at Australia’s CSIRO Climate Science Centre.
The world is currently on track for about 3.1 deg C of warming in this century, based on national policies. REUTERS
