Biden pledges long-term backing for Ukraine, but a US election looms

VILNIUS, Lithuania – Moments after President Joe Biden assured Mr Volodymyr Zelensky that he could count on United States support for as long as it took, the Ukrainian leader used the opportunity to speak not only to Nato allies but also to an audience thousands of miles away.

“I understand that it’s all your money,” Mr Zelensky said, addressing Americans directly.

“You spend this money for our lives.”

Despite Mr Biden’s repeated promises of staying by Ukraine’s side in its war against Russia, questions about the shelf life of support among American people and lawmakers

hung over the summit of Western allies.

Even as the US President was giving a long-term commitment, a group of far-right Republican lawmakers in Washington was pushing legislation that would scale back aid to Ukraine, exposing fractures in the Republican Party and raising doubts about its commitment should it capture the White House in 2024.

The two Grand Old Party candidates leading in polls, Donald Trump and Mr Ron DeSantis, have also expressed reservations about maintaining the war as a priority for the United States, fuelling concern among some Western allies and injecting the US electoral cycle as a major element in Ukraine’s prospects for victory.

At the Nato summit, Mr Biden was intent on addressing those doubts, vowing to continue to rally the alliance in support of Ukraine and speaking to his domestic audience back home, preparing Americans for a prolonged stand-off with Russia.

During

a speech from Vilnius University in the Lithuanian capital,

he compared the plight of Ukraine to the Cold War struggle for freedom in Europe, a fight that had the overwhelming support of both the Democratic and Republican parties.

“We will not waver,” Mr Biden said, a message echoed by most Nato leaders. “I mean that. Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken.”

How long?

Still, some leaders openly questioned just how long Ukraine could count on robust US support.

Ukraine needed to make military progress more or less “by the end of this year” because of the coming elections in the US, President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic warned on the first day of the summit. By 2024, he suggested, there could also be “another decline of willingness to massively support Ukraine with more weapons”.

British Defence Minister Ben Wallace went so far as “providing a slight word of caution” that

Ukraine should express more appreciation to allies

for sending tens of billions of dollars in aid to the country.

“Sometimes you’ve got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America,” Mr Wallace said. “You’ve got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that, you know, that it’s worthwhile.”

In a stern reply to Mr Wallace, Mr Zelensky later told reporters: “He can write to me about how he wants to be thanked.”

Even as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey expressed optimism about collaborating with the US at future Nato summits, he joked about the uncertainty of future US leadership.

“With the forthcoming elections, I would also like to take this opportunity to wish you the best of luck,” Mr Erdogan told Mr Biden, prompting the American President to laugh and reassure him that he would be meeting him again in the years ahead.

Doubting Republicans

But the concerns expressed by those leaders appeared to have some grounding, given Republican scepticism.

“I’m of course concerned about the leadership,” said Mr William Taylor, a former US ambassador to Ukraine in the Bush and Obama administrations. “American leadership on this issue is going to be key, and it will have to continue to be bipartisan.”

Mr Biden’s aides said they believe his ability to build support for Ukraine both domestically and overseas will be one of the lasting achievements of his presidency.

He has sold himself as someone who can repair the divisions deepened by his rivals, and on the campaign trail, he is expected to emphasise his consensus-building in the halls of Congress and on the global stage during what he has described as an inflection point for the world.

Turkey’s decision to end a block on Sweden’s entrance to Nato and Mr Zelensky’s declaration that the summit had given Ukraine a “significant security victory” will probably help Mr Biden’s case.

But many American voters remain unconvinced, particularly about his economic record, fuelling his low approval numbers.

Over the past year, Mr Biden has attempted to frame the economic hardship that comes with aiding Ukraine as a cost of defending democracy.

But some support among the public has wavered at times as Americans faced soaring consumer prices and Europeans grappled with an energy crisis after cutting their reliance on Russian gas.

The consumer price index showed on Wednesday that US inflation had cooled slightly in June, providing an assist to Mr Biden’s pitch. US Federal Reserve officials are still assessing, however, just how long the trend will last. Consumer price rises remain above the rate of increase from before the Covid-19 pandemic.

A recent Reuters-Ipsos survey found a sharp rise in support among the American public for helping Ukraine’s effort to defend itself against Russia. The survey found that 81 per cent of Democrats, 56 per cent of Republicans and 57 per cent of independents favoured supplying US weapons to Ukraine.

The poll also found that a large majority of Americans were more likely to support a presidential candidate who would continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.

“This is a good debate to have,” Mr Taylor said. “The American people deserve to participate in the debate about the support for Ukraine and the opposition to Russia’s invasion.”

Mr Taylor said he remained optimistic about Ukraine funding, since both the Democratic and Republican leadership in Congress have expressed support and because the proposals by the far-right flank are almost certain not to pass the House. NYTIMES