Armenia PM wins vote but pro-Russian opposition polls strongly

YEREVAN - Armenia’s governing Civil Contract party won a parliamentary election seen as a test of its handling of a peace deal with Azerbaijan and its growing turn to the West, away from traditional patron Russia.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party won 49.8 per cent of votes with all polling stations counted, enough to secure a parliamentary majority under Armenia’s electoral system, the Central Election Commission (CEC) said on June 8.

The results, based on a strong turnout of nearly 59 per cent, also showed a better-than-expected tally for the two main pro-Russian opposition groups, which won a combined 31 per cent of votes and are on track to enter Parliament alongside Civil Contract.

‘Historic victory’

The June 7 vote was Armenia’s first parliamentary election since a crushing military defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023 after years of conflict and political turbulence.

Pashinyan’s victory will boost his efforts to diversify Armenia’s allies and trading partners away from Russia and more towards Western countries.

Key to that effort is securing a peace deal with Azerbaijan and normalising relations with Turkey, which could unlock economic opportunities and boost regional connectivity in a strategic region sandwiched between Russia, Iran and Europe.

Pashinyan hailed a “historic victory” at a press conference in the early hours of June 8.

“The Armenian people voted for regional prosperity and cooperation and I hope this will draw a positive response from Turkey and Azerbaijan,” he said, pledging to continue building ties with both the West and Russia.

But Pashinyan fell short of the two-thirds majority in Parliament needed to call a constitutional referendum demanded as part of a peace deal by Azerbaijan – which has been at war with Armenia intermittently since the late 1980s – and to reopen the border and restart trade with Azerbaijan’s ally Turkey.

Zaur Shiriyev, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said it was unclear whether Azerbaijan would be willing to move forward with the peace process if Armenia failed to call a referendum on amending its Constitution.

“The (Armenian) government would then face a very difficult domestic situation,” Shiriyev said. “Cooperation with the opposition on such a sensitive issue is almost impossible.”

Azerbaijan wants Armenia to amend its Constitution to remove what it says is an implicit claim on Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway territory that had an ethnic Armenian population and was retaken by Baku in the 2023 war.

Opposition groups call foul

Some opposition groups criticised the election outcome and Pashinyan’s victory announcement, made when partial early results showed his party with around 54 per cent of the vote.

Parties need at least 4 per cent of votes to enter Parliament. The threshold is 8 per cent to 10 per cent for alliances of various sizes.

Opposition alliances Strong Armenia and Armenia Alliance won 23.2 per cent and 9.9 per cent of the vote, respectively, the CEC said.

A fourth party, Prosperous Armenia, had initially looked set to enter Parliament but a later tally put it just under the 4 per cent threshold.

A spate of arrests before the election targeted the opposition, including parliamentary candidates for Strong Armenia. Party founder Samvel Karapetyan, Pashinyan’s main rival, said more than 700 people associated with the group had been arrested.

“Rest assured the elections are not over yet and there are no results. They (the authorities) will not get the victory they desire,” Russia's Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

Karapetyan campaigned on a pro-business platform and close ties with Moscow. He is under house arrest on charges of calling for the overthrow of the government, which he rejects as politically motivated.

The Armenia Alliance, led by former pro-Russian president Robert Kocharyan, said Pashinyan’s early victory claim constituted “pressure on the CEC and usurpation of power”, Interfax said. REUTERS