After 2 years of bloody fighting, Ukraine wrestles with conscription

KYIV – When Russian troops and tanks

invaded Ukraine in February 2022,

tens of thousands of Ukrainians rushed to serve in the army in a surge of patriotic fervour. The influx of fighters who dutifully answered their draft notices or enlisted as volunteers helped to repel Russia’s initial assault and thwart the Kremlin’s plans to decapitate the Ukrainian government.

But after nearly two years of bloody fighting, and with Ukraine once again in need of fresh troops to fend off a new Russian push, military leaders can no longer rely solely on enthusiasm. More men are avoiding military service, while calls to

demobilise exhausted front-line soldiers

have grown.

The change in mood has been particularly evident in the heated debates over a new mobilisation Bill that could lead to as many as 500,000 troops being drafted. The Bill was introduced in Parliament in December 2023 – only

to be quickly withdrawn for revision.

The Bill has catalysed discontent in Ukrainian society about the army recruitment process, which has been denounced as riddled with corruption and increasingly aggressive. Many lawmakers have said that some of its provisions, like banning draft dodgers from buying real estate, could violate human rights.

The biggest sticking point concerns the highly delicate issue of mass mobilisation.

Measures that would make conscription easier have been seen by experts as paving the way for a large-scale draft, of the kind several military officials have recently said is needed to make up for losses on the battlefield and withstand another year of fierce fighting. Many in Ukraine fear that such measures could stir up social tensions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appeared unwilling to take responsibility for instituting a major draft, instead asking his government and the army to come up with more arguments supporting this move.

“I haven’t seen clear enough details to say that we need to mobilise half a million” people, he said in a recent interview with British broadcaster Channel 4.

The military has suggested that mass mobilisation is an issue for the civilian government, a response that could exacerbate brewing tensions between Mr Zelensky and his top commander, General Valery Zaluzhny. The President rebuked Gen Zaluzhny last autumn, after he said the war had reached a stalemate.

“It’s a hot potato,” said Mr Petro Burkovsky, head of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Ukrainian think-tank.

“The political leadership decided to avoid the issue of mobilisation” for most of the war, Mr Burkovsky said. But with troops depleted after two years, ignoring it is not sustainable, “and right now, someone has to be politically responsible”.

The challenge of mustering enough soldiers is just one of many facing Ukraine as foreign military and financial aid becomes harder to come by, threatening to weaken Kyiv’s ability to hold the front line and support its economy.

The need to replenish the Ukrainian armed forces has been evident for months. While Kyiv has kept its casualty count secret, United States officials last summer put the number at nearly 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

Russia’s casualties, the US officials said, were nearly twice that – the result of sending waves of troops in bloody assaults to capture cities, regardless of the human cost. But Russia has a much larger population, and it has swelled its ranks with tens of thousands of prisoners.

By contrast, Ukraine’s efforts to rebuild its forces have lagged.

Soldiers on the front line said they had noticed a steady decline in the quality of recruits. Many are older, nursing injuries from years ago and unmotivated to fight. More men are also trying to avoid the draft, escaping the country or hiding at home. Desertion, said one Ukrainian soldier stationed in the east, is also becoming an issue.

That has prompted military recruiters to shift to more aggressive tactics, forcing men into conscription offices, detaining them, sometimes illegally, and forcing them to enlist. Lawyers and activists have spoken out, but there is little sign of change. Many Ukrainians have likened recruiters to “people snatchers”.

Gen Zaluzhny said in an essay in November that the recruitment process needed to be reviewed “to build up our reserves”. But he and other officials have offered little alternative to a large-scale mobilisation.

Mr Zelensky has said his army chiefs have asked him to mobilise 450,000 to 500,000 men.

“This is a significant number,” he said in December, adding that a plan had to be drawn up before he could decide.

Experts say that is the main purpose of the mobilisation Bill, which does not specify how many troops should be added. It would lower the conscription age to 25 from 27, limit deferments over minor disabilities and restrict the ability of draft dodgers to obtain a loan or buy property. It also gives local authorities greater responsibility for conscription.

But many lawmakers, including from Mr Zelensky’s party, have raised concerns about measures such as those affecting the disabled and draft dodgers. They also say that relying on local governments may exacerbate problems. Regional recruitment centres have been plagued by corruption, with officers taking bribes to let men evade being drafted.

Mr Oleksiy Honcharenko, an MP in the opposition European Solidarity party, said: “All together, that made this Bill unacceptable in its form.”

After several days of debate in January, lawmakers sent the Bill back for revision.

Speaker of Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk told Ukrainian news media recently: “I clearly understand that the task of the military is to achieve success on the front. However, we need to work together to regulate such important and sensitive processes as mobilisation.”

Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said the government was already working on revisions. He expressed frustration at the lawmakers’ decision, saying mobilisation had been “politicised and stalled”.

Mr Honcharenko said a broader debate was needed on Ukraine’s military strategy. No one had clearly explained why it was now necessary to conscript up to 500,000 people, he said, which had left civilians confused.

Mr Burkovsky, the political analyst, said Ukrainian authorities had failed to “plan the pace of recruitment, of training and of replenishment of troops” in the war’s first year, leaving them to rush through the conscription process without addressing underlying issues that cause concern in Ukrainian civil society.

The Bill, for instance, leaves open the possibility of demobilising troops after three years of service. But relatives of men who have fought since the war began say this is too long and that they need to be replaced now. In recent weeks, Ukrainian cities have seen a growing number of protests calling for immediate demobilisation, a rare show of public criticism in wartime.

Mr Zelensky has also highlighted the cost of mobilisation for Ukraine’s flagging economy.

Conscription means fewer taxpayers covering a bigger army payroll. The President said in December that mobilising more than 450,000 people would cost 500 billion Ukrainian hryvnias (S$18 billion) – even as continued Western financial aid remains in doubt.

“Where will we get the money from?” Mr Zelensky asked. NYTIMES