2020 could be world's warmest year

Scientists say record-high temperatures, low Arctic sea ice set it on course to displace 2016

LONDON • Climate scientists have warned 2020 could be the world's hottest year on record, with September temperatures eclipsing previous highs and Arctic ice retreating from the seas it usually covers.

Global year-to-date temperatures show little deviation from 2016, the warmest calendar year recorded so far, Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported yesterday.

Climate patterns like La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, occurring for the first time in eight years, could determine whether this year turns out to be the warmest on record, according to the researchers.

Last month, temperatures reached 0.63 deg C above the 30-year historical average, with the Siberian Arctic and south-eastern Europe in particular feeling the warming effects of climate change.

Arctic sea ice reached its second-lowest extent for September, continuing a fast decline since satellites started monitoring the ice in 1979.

"There was an unusually rapid decline in Arctic sea ice extent during June and July, in the same region where above average temperatures were recorded," Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said.

"The combination of record temperatures and low Arctic sea ice in 2020 highlights the importance of improved and more comprehensive monitoring in a region warming faster than anywhere else in the world."

This year's record temperatures included an August reading of 54.4 deg C in Death Valley, possibly the highest ever recorded on earth.

Wildfires have also ravaged Australia and western parts of the United States, including California, where land burnt has passed a record 1.6 million hectares, the state's fire department said on Sunday.

"As we go into an even warmer world, certain extremes are likely to happen more often and be more intense," Copernicus senior scientist Freja Vamborg said, pointing to heat waves and periods of intense rain as examples of this.

Globally, last month was 0.05 deg C warmer than the same month last year and 0.08 deg C warmer than in 2016, previously the warmest and second-warmest Septembers, respectively, on record, the Copernicus data showed.

Over the final three months of this year, climate events such as the La Nina phenomenon and projected low levels of autumn Arctic sea ice will influence whether the year as a whole will become the warmest on record, the Copernicus service said.

The past five calendar years were the world's warmest on record. Average global temperatures have already climbed to roughly 1 deg C above pre-industrial times.

Countries agreed under the 2015 Paris climate accord to attempt to cap warming at 1.5 deg C, which scientists say would avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

But even though large emitters, including China and the European Union, have pledged to slash their emissions in the coming decades, overall, current policies would see temperatures rise far beyond the 1.5 deg C level.

"That is the key point. The earth has warmed a lot, and it will carry on warming if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the rate they are at the moment," Dr Vamborg said.

BLOOMBERG, REUTERS

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on October 08, 2020, with the headline 2020 could be world's warmest year. Subscribe