Driverless? No, but how about having a car as co-pilot?

NEW YORK CITY – Two decades ago, the US military kicked off the race to build a self-driving car by sending a fleet of fledgling robot vehicles across the Mojave Desert in its seminal 2004 Darpa challenge.

Ten years later, the auto industry was bubbling over with predictions that fully self-driving cars would be all over the roads by now. That has not happened. But the industry has since put limited bits of automation such as hands-free driving and crash-avoidance systems into mass-produced models.

Such systems are making driving safer and easier, although some notable accidents have led regulators to subject them to greater scrutiny.

Meanwhile, though a few companies are making progress towards full self-driving – Alphabet Inc’s Waymo plans to expand its robotaxi service that is already live in Phoenix and San Francisco – others have abandoned the technology, citing excessive costs and complexity. 

What is the latest on driverless vehicles?

The industry had a rough 2023. GM’s self-driving unit Cruise suffered the most notable setback in October, when one of its robotaxis in San Francisco struck and dragged a pedestrian for 6.1m. The ensuing backlash and the company’s handling of the crisis – company officials were not entirely forthcoming about the pedestrian being dragged by the car – led to California suspending its operating licence.

GM then grounded Cruise’s fleet in the three states where it was operating and dismissed nine top executives. While the company has been trying to rebuild trust to restart its robotaxi service, it plans to do so on a much smaller scale.

Cruise’s troubles also are likely to postpone a self-driving taxi service partnership with Honda Motor Co Ltd that the two were planning to launch in Tokyo in early 2026.

Is the news all bad?

There is hope for the industry in 2024: Technology leaders such as Waymo and China’s Baidu Inc are expanding services to new cities.

In Texas, start-ups Aurora Innovation Inc, Kodiak Robotics Inc and Gatik AI Inc expect to dispatch autonomous trucks at the end of the year, ditching human safety drivers after years of testing. China has been a hotbed of innovation, thanks to dozens of start-ups and robust regulatory support.  

What are the limited autonomy alternatives?

Advanced driver-assistance systems – known as ADAS – help drivers park, stay in their lane or avoid objects using cameras, radar and other electronic sensors.

They alert drivers or briefly take control of the car to avoid collisions. More and more such tools are being included in modern vehicles. One of the first was the ABS anti-skid braking system introduced more than four decades ago that is now standard.

More recent systems include features like emergency braking and automated parking.

How smart are such systems?

Automation systems are categorised from Level 0 to 5, based on how much of the work of driving the machine takes over. Level 0 features simply pass on information to the driver, like sounding an alarm when he is speeding.

Tesla Inc’s Autopilot is classified as Level 2 because it requires driver supervision, much in the way a pilot oversees an automated system in a plane cockpit. Mercedes-Benz Group AG is offering Level 3 autonomy – which requires neither hands on the steering wheel nor eyes on the road – in select vehicles under certain conditions in parts of Germany and the US.

Robotaxis that are being tested in confined areas in China could be categorised as high as Level 4 because their autonomous systems are advanced, but the vehicles are limited in terms of where they can go. The pinnacle – yet to be achieved – would be the fully autonomous car that can drive everywhere, under all conditions.

Who has embraced ADAS?

Virtually every major automaker has embraced ADAS, with the fanciest systems reserved for higher-priced vehicles. GM introduced Super Cruise, which allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel for brief periods, on the Cadillac CT6 as early as 2017.

Mercedes’ flagship electric sedan, the EQS, comes with a feature that stops the car and makes an emergency call if the driver becomes incapacitated. Customers in the US can get the German carmaker’s Level 3 system called Drive Pilot through a US$2,500 (S$3,370) annual subscription.

Volvo Car AB has made laser-based sensors known as lidar standard on its flagship electric EX90 SUV. The costly hardware – using technology the Apollo 15 astronauts employed to map the surface of the moon – can see better than cameras in bad weather.

Chinese carmakers have been outfitting even lower-priced vehicles with assisted-driving systems. BYD Co’s Dolphin EV, which starts from US$16,237 in China, comes standard with features including automated emergency braking and lane-keeping assistance.

The world’s biggest EV maker plans to introduce what it calls Navigation on Autopilot, which will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel and feet off pedals in certain scenarios.

What are the advantages of limited autonomy?

There are a few:

What are some of the issues with ADAS?

Fatal crashes involving ADAS garner a lot of attention, especially if Tesla is involved. Mr Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, argues that Autopilot saves lives but he has used questionable maths to make his case.

The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened dozens of investigations into crashes involving ADAS since 2016, most of them involving Teslas.

They include a probe into crashes in which Teslas using Autopilot collided with fire trucks or police cars parked at crash scenes. Tesla in December 2023 said it would fix more than 2 million vehicles – at the time its biggest recall ever – after NHTSA determined Autopilot did not do enough to guard against misuse.

Another issue: With humans still making most of the decisions, bad behaviour often follows. Drivers misuse adaptive cruise control for speeding, possibly undermining the feature’s safety benefits, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety said in a study released in 2022. Automakers’ own engineers have dozed off during testing.

Who has bailed on full autonomy?

Ford Motor Co and Volkswagen AG in October 2022 shut down their self-driving business Argo AI after deciding that profitable autonomous vehicles are a long way off – a dramatic turn of events for a business that had more than 2,000 workers and at one point was eyeing an initial public offering.

Ford, which wrote down its US$2.7 billion investment in Argo, formed a new unit to focus on ADAS features.

VW’s CEO Oliver Blume in late 2022 axed Audi’s plans for a self-driving vehicle because of slow progress. Apple Inc also adapted its plans for a car. The technology giant has struggled making a vehicle with Level 4 or even Level 5 capabilities and is now developing more basic driver-assistance features in line with Tesla’s current technology, Bloomberg reported on Jan 23.

The prior design called for a system that would not require human intervention on highways in approved parts of North America and could operate autonomously under most conditions. Before that, Apple envisioned creating a car without a steering wheel and pedals, but that idea is off the table for now. And a number of smaller driverless car start-ups have gone under.

Where is this headed?

In 2015, Ford’s then-CEO Mark Fields predicted that self-driving cars would be on the road in five years. A year later, Mr Musk said that Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous Los Angeles-to-New York trip by the end of 2017, another goalpost that came and went.

A true self-driving car – Level 5 – will not be available before 2035, and probably not for some time after that, S&P Global Mobility said in September 2023.

In the meantime, ADAS features have boomed as automakers seek to best rivals and give drivers high-tech bragging rights. The systems are also seen as a gateway to getting consumers comfortable with automated driving. Ultimately, carmakers are all trying to achieve the same goal: preventing crashes that kill some 1.2 million people each year. BLOOMBERG