China benefits from shift in US focus from Indo-Pacific

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought the United States back into Europe and the consequences of a shift in focus from the Indo-Pacific may be seen in the coming years, with China possibly the biggest beneficiary, panellists told a Straits Times roundtable on the Ukraine crisis yesterday.

Professor Kishore Mahbubani, a veteran Singapore diplomat and distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, said there were many possible scenarios arising from the invasion, one of which would be consolidation of the Western alliance.

"Europe will become definitely much closer to the United States and that is, frankly, a minus for China," he said at the roundtable moderated by Straits Times foreign editor Bhagyashree Garekar.

But he also floated an alternative scenario.

"Right now, so far, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin has done very, very badly in the first week of this invasion of Ukraine. But if somehow things turn around, he takes over control of Ukraine... suddenly you have a different kind of Russia to deal with, and both Europe and the US will be focused so much on Russia that China will get another 10 free years to grow," said Prof Mahbubani.

"Just as the Iraq war was a geopolitical gift to China - it gave China 10 free years to grow - this Ukraine thing could also give China 10 free years to grow. And then by the time the United States turns around to look at China, 10 years from now, China's GNP (gross national product) will be bigger than the United States'," he said.

"So you see, in life, there will always be alternative scenarios. So for us, from the point of view of a small state like Singapore, we've got to plan on the basis of all these scenarios and see which ones play out."

Prof Mahbubani added: "I will be very cautious about making any definitive long-term predictions of the outcomes. I suspect we will continue to be surprised by the results."

ST associate editor Ravi Velloor, another panellist at the roundtable, also pointed to the fact that the US has turned its attention to Europe.

"The Americans are very easily distracted, and Putin, by his actions, has brought America back into Europe fully. I mean, here they were talking about the Indo-Pacific, we are waiting to see big things happen, but at one fell swoop, and even before it's happened, American attention, Western attention has turned so much towards Europe," said Mr Velloor.

ST global affairs correspondent Jonathan Eyal concurred with that view. "There definitely has been and will be a pull of the United States to Europe because, quite frankly, that is the biggest security crisis at the moment," he said.

"What has startled me the most so far is that President Putin of Russia became the prisoner of his own misconceived ideas. He genuinely believed that Ukraine was a 'fake state', as he put it, that will collapse like a badly baked souffle the moment you touch it...

"Of course, what has happened is that these troops were not sufficient to take on the capital, and he lost the initiative. And a lot of things followed afterwards."

Prof Mahbubani expressed admiration for the way Ukraine has stood up to Russia.

"However, at the end of the day, overwhelming military power still has an effect, and it's conceivable that Ukraine could still fall completely under Russian control. And then it will be, of course, a darker world if that happens," he said.

"But at the end of the day, we've also got to figure out how we avoid worst-case outcomes from Ukraine. And this requires leadership, requires statesmanship to find some kind of solution.

"But there's no doubt at the same time that this event has changed the course of world history, and I think Ukraine's courage has also taught the world, and especially taught any great power, (to) be careful before you invade another country. It's never that easy."