Chaos in Rio shows a world untethered even before Trump returns

RIO DE JANEIRO – The caipirinhas were flowing, the samba and fervo dancers were swaying and a light ocean breeze enveloped the VIP guests in Rio de Janiero. But as the Group of 20 (G-20) communique popped up online, the mood was far from festive. 

The behind-the-scenes squabbling over language characterising wars in Ukraine and the Middle East had been

abruptly shut down by an impatient host

, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. That left a bitter taste, particularly among the US and its allies. 

Within hours, leaders who oversee 85 per cent of the global economy awoke to news that

Ukraine had fired American-made long-range missiles into Russia

for the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded some 1,000 days earlier. The Kremlin repeated its threat of a nuclear response, jolting markets. 

What was billed as a moment for “the West and the Rest” to show unity only served to show how quickly the guardrails are coming off the international rules-based order.

North Koreans are fighting in Europe

for the first time. Israel is resisting US efforts to halt fighting with Hezbollah and Hamas. China is regularly conducting military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Nuclear threats are becoming commonplace.

And that’s even before Donald Trump returns to the White House. 

The sense of global disorder played out in Rio, most vividly when US President Joe Biden and two other Group of Seven (G-7) leaders – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian premier Giorgia Meloni –

missed the traditional “family photo”

on the first day of the summit. The US said the picture was taken early, while organisers said Mr Biden was late. 

To make up for it, Mr Lula called for a re-shoot on Nov 19. Mr Biden was actually in the picture this time – popping a cough drop in his mouth and smiling in an almost grandfatherly fashion – but the fake background in lieu of Rio’s stunning Sugarloaf Mountain only reinforced the impression that the attempts of togetherness were merely a facade.

At a diplomatic cocktail the first night, the 79-year-old Lula got tired and went home early. Many of those gathered wanted to take selfies with a smiling Mr Biden, who turns 82 on Nov 20. At the end of the summit, neither one addressed reporters – an anticlimatic end that seemed to suggest none of the proceedings in Rio would matter much in a few months anyway. 

The

looming return of Trump

hung over the proceedings like the proverbial sword of Damocles. Questions repeatedly bubbled up about what kind of role America would continue to play in world affairs under the new White House, with diplomats politely avoiding the term “isolationist”. 

The leaders of emerging economies known as the Global South looked the most comfortable. India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping smiled and chatted with ease, holding centre stage before and after the group photo shots. With Trump threatening tariffs on both of them, it felt a bit like the calm before the storm. 

Milei rises

The old guard represented by the G-7 looked off their game. Mr Biden kept a light schedule on what is essentially a farewell tour, while Mr Trudeau and Germany’s Olaf Scholz are similarly looking like lame ducks. UK Premier Keir Starmer and Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba are only months into the job and still finding their way. 

The other two, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni –

both of whom suffered recent setbacks at the polls

– gravitated toward Mr Javier Milei, one of the standout presences in Rio. The Argentine President is the kind of wild card that captures the imagination in unpredictable settings. He and Mr Lula detest each other, with both looking miserable when protocol demanded they shake hands, but his off-camera rants against the establishment had everybody talking.

Mr Macron, who at one point took an early-morning run by Copacabana beach surrounded by bodyguards, conferred frequently with Mr Milei. In between taking her daughter to see the statue of Christ the Redeemer that overlooks Rio, Ms Meloni joked with Mr Milei that she wanted to brush up on her high-school Spanish. 

Both Ms Meloni and Mr Milei have forged their own relationships with Mr Elon Musk, who has Trump’s ear at least for now, and perhaps aspire to be whisperers of their own when he takes office in January. They were set to compare notes afterward, with Ms Meloni heading to Buenos Aires to spend more time with Mr Milei, who is fresh off his own trip to Mar-a-Lago. 

Ms Meloni is a good example of the balancing act many G-7 leaders face. When asked about US disengagement from the world, she was quick to say it was important for the so-called West to stick together.

Cracks emerging

Mr Macron appeared eager to fill the vacuum in the group left by Mr Biden’s departure. Ukrainian and European officials have been praising his embrace of a tougher stance towards Moscow and seeing Kyiv’s plight in terms that are existential to Europe’s future. Whether France can rally allies is a different matter, they added.

Mr Scholz continued to resist sending long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv in light of the US decision, and drew rebukes – privately and publicly – for an earlier phone call with Mr Putin even though he pleaded in vain with Mr Lula to let Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky join the gathering.

Below the surface, the cracks split wide open. One diplomat said it is clear that Trump despises much of what Europe stands for and that is not likely to change, so nations on the continent simply needed to find as many allies as possible to support collective action on multilateral climate commitments and support for the World Trade Organisation. 

The new world

Yet if Rio showed anything, it is that the West is no longer running the show. Every G-20 statement since Russia’s war against Ukraine has been weaker than the previous version. Fewer and fewer nations want to play by old rules, let alone defend them.

A few diplomats noted that Mr Lula broke several diplomatic conventions when he hit the button early on the G-20 communique – and that sends a powerful message to any future host. Some leaders said they had hoped for stronger language, particularly on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

But Mr Lula, who spent time in prison and staged a political comeback on par or better than that of Trump, did not seem to care. As Western diplomats complained about one of the most chaotic summits in living memory, Brazil has a very different perception: The slight to Biden was unintentional, and the topics close to Mr Lula’s heart – the fight against hunger, the tax on billionaires – made it in the final statement. 

As one seasoned diplomat put it: Embrace the sun, enjoy the cocktail hour and “Welcome to Latin America”. BLOOMBERG