Canadian election race thrown open by Trump’s tariff threat

OTTAWA - US President Donald Trump has helped upend the 2025 Canadian election, transforming what looked like an easy win for the official opposition Conservatives into a tighter race that could even end in deadlock.

The right-leaning Conservatives, led by Mr Pierre Poilievre, had enjoyed a double-digit lead for 18 months over the Liberals of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom they accused of breaking Canada after almost a decade in power.

Now that supposed victory looks much less sure.

The reasons?

Mr Trudeau’s resignation announcement

in January, followed by Mr Trump’s vow to impose potentially crippling tariffs on all imports from Canada.

“When you look at the changes over the past four weeks, it’s basically a whole new world... The big change is Trump,” said Mr Nik Nanos, founder of the Nanos Research polling firm.

A Nanos poll released on Feb 18 showed the Conservatives with 39 per cent of public support, and the Liberals with 32 per cent.

Such a result on election day could see the Conservatives fail to win a majority of the 343 seats in the House of Commons.

This would mean a fragile minority government, where the party in power tends to be more focused on its survival than dealing with Canada’s major issues such as energy and mineral policy and challenges from its largest trading partner.

The Liberals want to highlight what they see as similarities between Mr Trump and Mr Poilievre and on Feb 16 released an advertisement drawing direct parallels between the two men, who both promote the national flag, insult their opponents and attack the media.

The 35-second video, which starts with the words, “How can you speak for Canada when you sound like Donald Trump?”, shows clips of Mr Trump and Mr Poilievre uttering almost identical phrases.

The Conservatives did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A close Trump ally, Mr Elon Musk praised Mr Poilievre several times on his X social media network in January.

Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller said: “You can’t say that Canada is broken, and at the same time say that Canada is the best country in the world. The two just don’t go together.”

The Conservative platform for the next election – which must be held by Oct 20 – had been based on fighting Mr Trudeau and opposing a planned increase in the federal carbon tax.

But Mr Trudeau is now leaving, and the two main contenders to replace him – former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and

former central banker Mark Carney

– are both promising to axe the tax while standing up to Mr Trump.

“Canadians have put what happened before out of their minds... which has created an opportunity for the Liberals to resuscitate themselves through a leadership contest,” said Mr Darrell Bricker, chief executive of polling firm Ipsos Public Affairs.

Amid talk of the Conservatives pivoting their strategy, Mr Poilievre gave a speech on Feb 15 in which he ditched the talk of “Broken Canada” and vowed to push for “Canada First”.

He blamed Mr Trudeau for what he said were policies that had left the country with a weak economy, mired in a housing crisis and unable to make the most of its rich natural resources, but stopped short of reframing his platform.

“The media says I should change my plans because of this tariff threat. In fact, the Trump tariff threats have proven Conservatives right on everything,” he said.

Carney threat

Mr Poilievre, 45, has spent his entire career in politics. Mr Carney, 59, is the only person to chair two Group of Seven central banks and bills himself as someone used to handling major crises.

Polls in recent days by Angus Reid and Leger both found that if Mr Carney won the Liberal leadership contest, the Liberals and Conservatives would be virtually tied statistically.

Surveys of what Canadians actually think now, though, still put the Conservatives ahead.

Mr Garry Keller, a former senior Conservative Party staff member who is now vice-president at public affairs consultancy Strategy Corp, said Mr Poilievre felt that Canadians were still extremely concerned about the cost of living and affordability.

“Obviously, tariffs have an impact on that. But it’s not just tariffs, it’s the record of the last nine years of the Liberal government,” he said.

The Liberals are due to announce the new leader on March 9 and Mr Carney last week said if he won, he might call an immediate election in a bid to get a strong mandate to deal with Mr Trump.

That would give the Conservative war room little time to refocus its attacks on a man who is little known in Canada, in part because of his years spent abroad.

The initial tactic is to portray him as a member of the elite out of touch with ordinary Canadians.

Conservative legislator Andrew Scheer told reporters last week: “He lives in a completely different world. He doesn’t have to buy groceries in tough neighbourhoods or take public transit.” REUTERS