Canada’s military has modelled hypothetical US invasion, reports say

OTTAWA – The Canadian military has modelled how it would respond to a US invasion after US President Donald Trump publicly talked about

the country as a potential 51st state

, according to a report in The Globe and Mail newspaper.

The northern nation’s defence strategy would include tactics similar to those used in Afghanistan against Russian and later US-led forces, the Globe reported, citing unnamed government officials.

The officials stressed that they consider a US invasion to be highly unlikely.

The Economist, also citing people it did not name, reported earlier in January that the Canadian military is discussing worst-case scenarios that, though improbable, “now include incursions by America”.

The preparations underscore how sharply relations between the two longstanding allies have deteriorated during Mr Trump’s second term.

The countries have not engaged in armed conflict since the War of 1812, when Canada, then a British colony, successfully repelled US advances. 

Since then, the US military has grown into the world’s most powerful.

Officials told the Globe that the model assumes an attack from the south in which US forces would overcome Canada’s positions on land and at sea within a week – or potentially in as little as two days.

In such a scenario, the Canadian military envisions small groups of irregular fighters or armed civilians carrying out ambushes, sabotage or drone warfare, the Globe reported.

Those tactics could include so-called “hit-and-run” attacks involving improvised explosive devices, similar to those used by the Taliban in Afghanistan against the US and allied forces, including Canada.

The reports come as Mr Trump takes an

increasingly aggressive posture towards Greenland

, Canada’s Arctic neighbour.

In an early morning Truth Social post on Jan 20, he published an image showing a map with both Canada and Greenland covered by the US flag. 

Professor Wesley Wark, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, said a direct US military invasion of Canada was “extremely unlikely”, though he had heard from contacts in the defence sector that contingency planning was under way as a worst-case scenario.

These plans were prompted by Mr Trump’s second administration and were not in place during the Biden presidency, the expert on national security and intelligence issues said.

They are tightly held and he has not reviewed them directly, Prof Wark added.

“The planning is necessary. The prospect is unimaginable,” he said. “I think the real concerns for the Canadian government are less the unreality of a US military attack on Canada and more the growing realities of economic coercion and political pressure.”

Potential US political pressure points include exploiting and amplifying separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec through tactics such as disinformation campaigns, he said, while economic coercion could manifest as demands for open access to Canadian energy resources, critical minerals and water.

Security pressures could arise over the Canadian Arctic, with the US potentially demanding greater access and control and possibly reigniting the dispute over the sovereignty of the Northwest Passage, Prof Wark said.

In the unlikely event of a full-scale assault, a Canadian defence strategy would probably involve partisan warfare and a retreat to “northern fortresses” to preserve military and governmental capabilities.

Canada is a vast country, he pointed out, “the occupation of which would be hugely challenging for the American military”. 

Foreign Minister Anita Anand told Bloomberg in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that Canada is bolstering its Arctic presence.

The country plans to spend 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence this fiscal year and aims to meet NATO’s 5 per cent target by 2035.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is considering

sending a small contingent of troops to Greenland

to join forces from Britain, Denmark, France and other nations for NATO exercises, but he has not announced a final decision. 

“Canada will never be the 51st state,” Ms Anand said. “We will always ensure that we stand four-square behind our NATO allies.” BLOOMBERG